Spurs of the Moment

Thus far, we have looked at the Spurs personnel and what they may or may not need to get to that fifth title. Now we’ll look at their defense overall.

DEFENSE – Since the 1989-90 season the Spurs have always received a high defensive rating (per 100 possesions). There have only been three seasons the Spurs ranked 10th or worse defensively since David Robinson’s rookie debut. The first was in 1992-93 (ranked 10th), a season in which they went through three coaches. 1996-97(ranked 29th), a season full of injuries and a significant coaching change which enabled the Spurs to get “Timmy” the following season. And finally, last season 2010-11 (ranked 11th), although despite the low rank in defense per 100 possesions, they had the 2nd best record in the league, but then were beaten significantly in the first round.

Since the drafting of Tim Duncan the Spurs philosophy on defense was pretty simple, run perimeter players baseline to Duncan or the second big (Robinson/Mohammed/Oberto) and force them into a difficult pass or shot attempt or best-case scenario, block the attempt and start the break. That philosophy got even better as the Spurs upgraded perimeter defenders like Mario Elie and Sean Elliott for quicker, younger players like Bowen and Ginobili.

Today things have changed drastically. Bowen is retired, Ginobili is older and carries a heavy load on the offensive end. As for Duncan, he is still effective on the court. However, he must do much more on the defensive end than ever. Why? Because the Spurs have done away with that 2nd big that would help Duncan defend the paint and get the boards. That’s really where the Spurs have declined. In years past, Robinson or Mohammed would have grabbed 10 rebounds and blocked  two shots all while Duncan got his usual 20 and 10. Even Oberto would grab his share of rebounds, and while he didn’t block shots he drew just as many offensive fouls.

Players at both the 4/5 positions are shorter, quicker and more athletic  these days. The Spurs have  changed with the times to try to match and still keep their defensive identity, and that hasn’t worked well at all. However, take a look at the Lakers who haven’t changed their sizable frontcourt tandem in 3 years. Whats the result? Two finals appearances and 2 championships. Note that the team that knocked them off had two 7-footers of their own.

Quick trivia…we all remember the twin towers, but does anybody remember the triple towers? In the 1997-98 season the Spurs had many injuries at the small forward position so Coach Pop enlisted the Triple Towers: Will Perdue at Center, David Robinson at Power Forward, and a mobile rookie named Tim Duncan at Small Forward. The result? Spurs went 17-5 when they played that lineup and held most of their opponents to under 40% fg and outrebounded them significantly.

The point? Yes, size matters, but more importantly size and mobility matter. Andrew Bynum, like Duncan, has no chance of guarding many of today’s power forwards, while Gasol (his defensive partner) does. Granted, he is tall and will get burned sometimes by some of the smaller, quicker forwards, but on those occasions that’s where help defense comes into play. They also have the luxury of bringing Lamar Odom (a hybrid 3/4 player himself) off the bench.

For the Spurs, Duncan has the mobility of a Center, PERIOD. Finding a tall or decent sized Power forward ( at least 6’9″) that can play 30 minutes a game and grab his share of rebounds (say 7 or 8), keep his man in front of him, and give them something significant on offense will do the trick. While Tiago Splitter might be that guy for good portions of a game (when they wanna role out the twin tower look), some of his weaknesses on offense might hurt the Spurs overall if he plays too many minutes with Duncan.

On the Perimeter the Spurs could use a defensive stopper. Kawhi Leonard has been said to be a promising defensive player and a solid rebounder, but the Spurs could use someone that is a little smaller and a little more mobile out on the floor.

For the Spurs defense to return to where it was a few years ago, they’re going to need two players. 1 – a mobile 4 that can rebound, defend, and and hold his own on offense. 2 – a perimeter defender who is young and athletic and has the lateral quickness (something Leonard may not have) needed to defend the 2′s and 3′s in the leauge. Next week we’ll look at their offense.

CENTER: Probably the most vital position on the floor as it concerns defense. Whether a team is good defensively or horrible, the Center is always important. For good defensive teams that rotate well on the perimeter, a center is needed to clog the middle, secure rebounds and deny second shot opportunities (offensive rebounds). On a bad defensive team that either gambles for steals a lot on the perimeter or simply isn’t interested in staying in front of their man, a Center is essential for not only rebounding and taking up space in the paint, but for blocking or altering any shot attempt that comes his way, thus stopping a guaranteed basket for the opposing team.

Tim Duncan ht 6-11 | Last season 13.4 pts 8.9 rbs 1.9 blk in 28 mins a game PLAYOFFS 12.7 pts 10.5 rbs 2.5 blk in 35 mins a game

The Tim Duncan everyone tries to remember is the Duncan that had a solid back to the basket game, a face up game as well, which included some of the best footwork of that time, and when it was all said and done a jumper with range out to about 16-18 ft. Last season the Spurs went away from Duncan on offense. They also overworked him on defense by having guys who either don’t rebound or play defense next to him at the Power Forward slot. Duncan did well for most of the season, trying to use his older slower body to grab most of the rebounds and attempt to clean up all the defensive mistakes that the other Spurs made. Thats a lot to ask an aging Center in a youth-filled league. In the playoffs it took its toll. Duncan had to guard Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, and try to protect the paint all by himself. It didn’t work!!!!! Duncan has limited mobility, but his I.Q. on defense  and offense are enough to help the Spurs go far, provided he gets legit help at the Power Forward position.

Tiago Splitter ht 6-11 | Last season 4.6 pts 3.4 rbs in 12 mins a game PLAYOFFS 6.7 pts 4.7 rbs in 17 mins a game

Tiago Splitter definitely got the 08-09 George Hill treatment. Yeah sure, they raved about him before he got here and then the guy barely played. Sure he got a few injuries; but come on, seriously??? Splitter, like Hill in his rookie season, showed signs of being able to contribute on a nightly basis. In Hill’s case, Pop wouldn’t let him get past Jacque Vaughn, and for Splitter he couldn’t get past Blair, Bonner, or McDyess. In the 08-09 playoffs the Spurs were eaten alive by the smallest guy on the court (maybe the smallest guy in the building), JJ Barea, and after going down in the series Pop put in Hill who did well. Not to mention what he did to the Mavs the next year in the playoffs. Splitter was put in the same situation. Tim Duncan can’t stop two good big men(much less one) and protect the paint at the same time. Splitter came in and did a better job than all the Spurs bigs except Duncan (obviously), and maybe Dice gets a slight nod. Splitter, despite not having a jumpshot, is mobile on both ends, is an Oberto-like rebounder (thats a good thing), and has some solid post moves.

ANALYSIS: The Spurs have decent size, good rebounding, and available low-post scoring. The Spurs, as mentioned, went away from the low-post game while allowing Parker and Ginobili to run around and do the scoring and distributing. However, if you look at the last six teams to win the Championship, they all have something in common – low-post threats on offense and equally defensive minded big-men*. With Duncan being the only big guy to get consistent touches on offense and at the same time the only legitimate big to protect the paint, the Spurs would have never made it far even if they had somehow managed to beat the Grizzlies. To get back to championship level basketball, the Spurs must once again establish a post game. This does not mean they force feed Duncan, but simply get him more consistent touches on the block, mixed in with Splitter and Jefferson getting post-up opportunities a few times a game as well. You can also never have enough big men. So if the Spurs would like to add an extra guy, free agent Aaron Gray, formerly of the Hornets, may be the answer. He’s not much statistically, but he can bang with the Bynums and Howards of the league. Next week we’ll look at the Guards.

*Lowpost threats and defensive bigmen of the last six championship teams

2011 (Nowitzki/Chandler)

2009 and 2010(Gasol/Bynum)

2008(Garnett/Perkins)

1999,2003,2005,2007 (Duncan/Robinson 99′ an 03′ – Duncan/Mohammed 05′ – Duncan/Oberto 07′)

2004(Rasheed Wallace/Ben Wallace)

2000-2002 (Shaq)

Count me among the NBA fans who enjoy watching the Lakers lose. It wasn’t always this way, but that Kobe guy just irks me. Needless to say, I was very pleased with the Spurs thrashing of the Lake-No-Shows last night 97-82. The Lakers played (count em) ONE good quarter -- and that was the 2nd. I am not sure it was even them playing a good quarter as much as it was the Spurs having a bad one. At any rate, the Lakers have now lost three straight and Kobe is starting to (maybe) realize that his 30-ish% shooting is as much to blame as anyone else on the team. He was 8-for-27 from the field. It doesn’t help that Pau Gasol, Ron Artest, and Lamar Odom barely made a dent in the game, Shannon Brown was 1-for-11 and their point guards suck. All in all, the Lakers shot 35% from the field and committed 16 turnovers -- and five were courtesy of Kobe Bryant. At least Andrew Bynum is coming along (10 points and 7 boards in 22 minuntes). If he’s available in your fantasy league then now is a good time to snatch him up.

On the flip side, San Antone handled their biz as usual. Aside from Duncan having a horrible game (1-of-7 from the filed for 2 points, 4 boards and 2 assists in 30 minutes), everyone else was decent or better. Tony Parker had another great game going off for 23 points, two boards, two steals, and three assists without a single turnover. It’s so nice to see him not turning the ball over five times a game like last year. Also -- DeJuan-Frikkin-Blair was awesome with 17 points, 15 rebounds, two steals and a block. Now that’s what I’m talking about. I can’t see why he doesn’t approach those numbers more often. It’s not like the Lakers lack size or anything.

George Hill played 27 minutes and had 10 points, nine rebounds, four blocks, three assists, and two steals -- no turnovers. Meanwhile, Gary Neal only played about 18 minutes. Like I said, it’s time to move on if you picked him up in your fantasy league.

Speaking of George Hill, Kobe almost provoked him in to going Chris Childs on him at one point. Peep the video below:

Well today is the day. LA Lakers vs Boston Celtics.. again. Call me crazy, but I am going to go out on a limb and make predictions one more time this season. I nailed the first round, and most of the Western Conference. However, my underestimation of the Boston Celtics pretty much ruined my bracket. I say no more! This time I am going to call it and get it right, so here goes.

Backcourt:
Kobe Bryant is among the best players in the NBA ever, and Ray Allen is among the best shooters in the NBA ever. They seem to share a mutual dislike for eachother dating back to Ray Allen’s days in Seattle, if not further. Kobe will be forced to run around and defend him all series or try to shut down Rajon Rondo instead. Rondo is making a case for himself being considered the best point guard in the league. The only problem is that he is banged up and the Celtics need him to run the show or they will be in trouble. They got a lift from Nate Robinson in Game 6 against Orlando, but that can’t be expected to work all series against LA. Derek Fisher is the weakest link here for either team, but that isn’t saying much as he is not a very mistake prone player and has a knack for hitting a timely shot or two in crunch time.

Frontcourt:
Lamar Odom and Ron Artest will be bothersome to say the least. Paul Pierce had his way with the Lakers pre-Ariza/Artest era, but it’s a different situation now. If Pierce can get going at all in this series it will help to keep Artest less active on offense, but the jury is out on how effective either can be against each other. KG has obviously lost a step since the Celtics won in 2008, but he has learned to adjust quite well. I’m sure it helps when you have a decent supporting cast around you. The question is how they will contain Pau Gasol. Presumably, Kendrick Perkins will do the honors of guarding Gasol most of the time, and that would be fine but there is one worrisome factor here. Perkins is one tech short of a one game suspension. Can he keep under control enough to not get T’d up or ejected? Then there’s Bynum who is still having problems with his knee. How effective can he be? I’m guessing not as effective as Rasheed Wallace - and that’s not saying much.

Bench:
Both teams have decent benches that can give them a boost when needed. Odom may start with Bynum having issues with the knee, but the Lakers also have Farmar, Shannon Brown, and Adam Morrison (just kidding). The Celtics can lean on Tony Allen sometimes (of course that could mean a timely five points or untimely five turnovers), and Nate Robinson in the backcourt, with Rasheed and Glen Davis in the frontcourt.

Coach:
Then there’s the Phil Jackson factor. Phil is a far better coach than Rivers, but Doc has surprised me lately. He is doing all the right things and navigated the Eastern Conference with relative ease.

In the end, I think the Celtics have the edge. They beat Orlando and Cleveland without home court so I don’t see why they couldn’t beat LA in a series format that arguably favors the road team. My prediction: Celtics in 6

As if the Spurs being ousted by the Suns wasn’t bad enough. My Playoff Predictions went from perfect to utterly ruined in Round Two as the Cavs choked against the Celtics in what could be LeBron’s last championship run in Cleveland.

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The NBA Playoffs are ready to start and the bracket is below along with my thoughts on each round and my own predictions all the way to the NBA Finals. If I am wrong then so be it, but if I get it right I need proof that I “knew it all along” so here goes…

First Round
Western Conference:
LA Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder > LA Lakers
This has the potential to be one of the funnest matchups in a long time. Durant is the youngest scoring champ in NBA history and is going against one of the best players the league has ever seen. It has all the makings of one of those classic “pass the torch” matchups. The only problem is that it isn’t. The Thunder just aren’t there yet and will be lucky to win a game against a well coached Lakers team who will make quick work of the young OKC squad. Scott Brooks is on his way as a fine coach, but this is where the real lessons are learned and the happy-to-be-in-the-playoffs-Thunder are going to get a quick, not-so-subtle lesson in humility. Still, I think that Durant and company will make this an entertaining series and Kobe has no shortage of fans or haters (me included) to keep things extra interesting. Prediction: Lakers in 5

Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz > Utah Jazz
The Nuggets are falling apart and have lost their coach and their mojo over the past month. They are 6-7 in their past 13 games and got pummeled in a blow-out loss against Phoenix in their season finale. Coach Karl is expected to miss at least the first round of the playoffs which means he is basically going to miss the playoffs. However, the Jazz don’t exactly inspire much confidence either, especially after the way they lost in their season finale, also against the Phoenix Suns. I think that neither team is a serious contender but they will battle eachother to a near standstill before one ultimately prevails  over the other only to get ousted in the next round. Prediction: Jazz in 7

Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers > Phoenix Suns
The Suns are on a mission right now after thrashing both Denver and Utah in the past week en route to a 14-2 finish. The Blazers are likely going to be without their leading scorer and best overall player, Brandon Roy. The Blazers have shown that they can meet many challenges over the course of the season, but this is the end of the line for Portland. They can only hope that next year Greg Oden doesn’t get another case of janky-knees or pose for anymore risque pictures. Prediction: Suns in 5

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs > San Antonio Spurs
Oh boy. Revenge or Repeat? I say revenge for the Spurs. The Mavs made a nice little blockbuster deal during All-Star Weekend, but Caron Butler is not having quite the impact he was expected to. He’s no slouch, and is miles better than the inconsistent, injury-plagued, blitzed out of his mind Josh Howard, but he is not taking this team to the next level – at least not yet. Haywood has probably had a bigger impact for the Mavs. Still, after the Mavericks went on their 13 game win streak shortly after the trade, they came back down to earth and started looking mortal again. Can they win it all? Certainly, but they are known more for blowing up for no apparent reason than winning championships. Enter the Spurs. San Antonio has been slowly but surely integrating several new players into the Spurs system and while the results were not so great early on, they are now showing signs of being a legit contender. They can absolutely upset the Mavericks and anyone else in their path. Last year the Spurs didn’t have Manu Ginobili for the playoffs, and this year he returned to form in a big way and got a $39 million contract extension to boot. George Hill’s defense will factor in as well. He won’t stop Kidd from getting his fair share of assists, but he can keep the point guards for the Mavs from running amok. I’ll do a more in-depth preview of this matchup, but for now let’s just say that this matchup has “upset” written all over it. Prediction: Spurs in 6

Eastern Conference:
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago Bulls > Cleveland Cavaliers
The Bulls barely managed to make the playoffs, and while their epic series against the Celtics showed a lot of promise, the only promise they have this year is a swift execution. Cleveland is the favorite in the East if not the league and will dispatch the Bulls quickly and with authority. Prediction: Cavs in 4

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat > Boston Celtics
The Celtics are nowhere near the dominant team they were a few years ago when they were NBA champs. The Big Three are older, slower, and a little bit rickety. Even Doc Rivers is hinting at bailing out before it gets worse next season. They just aren’t the same squad. Bill Simmons blames Rasheed Wallace to an extent which is probably about accurate, although I think it’s more an effect than a cause. The cause is that they simply aren’t as hungry, aren’t as desperate, and aren’t as good as they once were. Having said that, the Miami Heat have very little chance of advancing. As hopeless as I think the Celtics are when it comes to winning it all this year, the Heat are not any better. Can they upset the Celtics? Certainly. Will they? I think not. Prediction: Celtics in 7

Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks > Atlanta Hawks
I don’t really like Milwaukee, but I like Brandon Jennings. He won’t be able to win this for the Bucks though. Atlanta has a veteran point guard in Bibby who will run all over the Bucks who really don’t have anyone on the team that’s playoff tested unless you count Jerry Stackhouse or Kurt Thomas  – and I don’t. John Salmons has a little bit of experience with Chicago, but that won’t be enough to overcome the Hawks. Atlanta wants everyone to know they are for real, and they are not going to let the Bucks stand in their way. Prediction: Hawks in 6

Orlando Magic vs Charlotte Bobcats > Orlando Magic
The Charlotte Bobcats are making their first playoff appearance with Larry Brown leading the charge. They have the coaching and the personnel to flat out embarrass the Orlando Magic if they don’t come with it. I still don’t see it happening though. The Bobcats are good, but Orlando has too many weapons at every position and even an injury to one of the Magic’s key players probably wouldn’t be enough to derail them this early on. They need to focus on this opponent and this round though, or they will be taking an early vacation. Prediction: Magic in 6

Second Round
Western Conference:
LA Lakers vs Utah Jazz > LA Lakers
The Lakers will be well rested and the Jazz will be out of their element in this round. Aside from Deron Williams at point guard, the Jazz have no favorable matchups in this round and he won’t have an easy day with everyone from Fisher, to Kobe, to Artest pushing him around. Prediction: Lakers in 6

Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs > San Antonio Spurs
I don’t know why, but for some reason the Spurs always own the Suns. Maybe God hates the Suns or maybe just likes the Spurs – I don’t know. Maybe the fix is in. Either way, the Spurs almost always beat the Suns and this will be no different. Prediction: Spurs in 6

Eastern Conference:
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics > Cleveland Cavaliers
This is where the wheels fall off for Boston. This will be the last time the Big Three play in a series together, the last time Boston is considered a true contender, and hopefully the last time we are forced to look at Rasheed Wallace’s man-boobs. One can only hope. Prediction: Cavs in 6

Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic > Orlando Magic
Orlando can smell the NBA Finals by this point and will be itching to get to Cleveland without being battered too much. That’s too bad though because the Hawks will give them everything they can handle. Atlanta has a good team, but not a great team, but they can take another step in the right direction in this series. Prediction: Magic in 7

Conference Finals
Western Conference:
LA Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs > LA Lakers
I want to be wrong. I want so desperately to be wrong, but I just don’t see it happening. The Spurs can beat the Lakers, but I fear that Artest and Kobe will harass RJ and Ginobili too much. I don’t think the Spurs can really account for Gasol and Bynum. The keys to this series for the Spurs will be the play of Tony Parker and George Hill at the point guard spot, and whether or not McDyess and Blair can neutralize Bynum at the center spot. The Spurs can beat the Lakers, but probably not four games out of seven. I just hope the Spurs batter the Lakers enough to weaken them for the Finals. Prediction: Lakers in 7

Eastern Conference:
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Orlando Magic > Cleveland Cavaliers
This is where the Magic are going to miss Hedo Turkoglu’s play-making ability. The Cavs defense is going to smother the Magic and do to them what they should have last season – knock them out of the playoffs. Prediction: Cavs in 6

NBA Finals
LA Lakers vs Cleveland Cavaliers > Cleveland Cavaliers
Kobe wants to repeat, but not as much as LeBron wants to win his first title. Kobe doesn’t have the same motivation that he had in previous seasons since Shaq left town, but LeBron has all the motivation in the world. Also, Shaq will surely enjoy snatching a championship away from Kobe. This is LeBron’s year and that’s all there is to it. The Cavs all know that if they don’t win it all, LeBron could walk. If they do win it all, there is no way LeBron walks away. Everyone in Cleveland knows this. You know it. I know it. The Lakers know it… and there is nothing they can do about it. Prediction: Cavs in 7

First off, Mason’s agent is trying to clarify that Mase is not demanding a trade, but is simply “open” to one. The reason, of course, is due to minutes. I’ve been saying all year that Mason should start at shooting guard if not Ginobili, but Pop stubbornly stuck to Keith Bogans for several months. Now George Hill is starting next to Parker, and while he is getting better and is coming along defensively, he is still undersized and I don’t recall him hitting any game winners like Mase did several times last season. According to the San Antonio Express News:

“One league executive said he expects the Spurs to make overtures at the Miami Heat, who are shopping a number of players, including power forward Udonis Haslem and small forward Dorell Wright.”

My response: Huh? Read more »

The Spurs lost to a Lakers team that was missing arguably the best player in the game right now and their starting center. They may as well have lost to Pau Gasol and four lucky fans last night. Gasol had some ridiculous numbers with 21 points, 19 rebounds, eight assists, five blocks, and a steal. Ron Artest had 18 points, and Lamar Odom had a double-double with 16 and 10. For the Spurs, the usual players showed up – Duncan (16 points, 15 boards), Parker (20 points, 8 assists), and Ginobili (21 points). The tandem of Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair had 15 points and 14 rebounds… not too bad. George Hill was a non-factor, and Richard Jefferson…. oh boy.

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On the one hand, it’s hard to get too excited about beating a Lakers team playing without Pau Gasol and only 3/4 of Kobe. On the other hand, it’s always nice to pummel the Lakers, even if it means kicking them while they’re down. The Spurs dismantled the remnants of the reigning champs 105-85 in San Antonio making them 11-10 against Western Conference foes. It was also nice to beat a team that is above .500 for a change. That makes the Spurs 5-11 in that category. For once, the Spurs committed fewer turnovers than their opponents – only 10 to LA’s 14. The Spurs shot 57.3% from the field, but were a horrific 4-of-11 from the free throw line. Good thing this game wasn’t closer. The Spurs are now 1.5 games behind Dallas in the Southwest Division and five games behind the Lakers.

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We’re all busy people, and it sucks when we finally have time to sit down and watch a basketball game only to find out it’s the Clippers or Bucks tonight. Who needs that kind of aggravation? I know I don’t, so I have compiled the following list of the Top 15 Must-See Games for Spurs fans this season. So mark your calendars, get your tickets, set your Tivo, book your flights, save up your sick days, or whatever you have to do, but do not miss these match-ups.

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