Spurs of the Moment

With the NBA season less than two weeks away, it’s time to unveil my Top 10 Spurs Fantasy Players. I am going to examine their value from a seasonal league and a keeper league perspective, and I will also name a few players who will be in similar draft positions so that you will get an idea of where to value them. Hopefully this information can help you all draft better teams than you would have otherwise… unless you’re in a league with me.

1. Tim Duncan (PF)
Duncan is the obvious choice here. Well, almost obvious. The concerns with Duncan – mainly injury history and age – are the same for the Spurs’ other two top dogs – Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. That’s why I can’t lower him for anyone else on the team, but it is worth mentioning that last year Duncan averaged his lowest rebounds (10.1 per game), points (17.9 per game), and blocks (1.5 per game) ever. His minutes went down to 31:18 per game, and the plan is to lower his minutes more this season as well as rest him in the second of back-to-back games. When he plays he will be the same double-double machine on most nights, but I wouldn’t recommend drafting him any higher than a 3rd round pick. For Power Forwards, I’d pick Amare, Dirk, Bosh, Pau Gasol, or David Lee before Duncan. However, I would pick Duncan before Zach Randolph, Odom, Millsap, or Jeff Green. In a Keeper League, this might be the last year you can get something for him in a trade, and I would avoid him in Keeper drafts unless he’s lingering there in the 6th or 7th round.

2. Manu Ginobili (SG)
Gino moves ahead of Parker for a couple of reasons. First off, he has seemingly shaken off the injury label – the same one that Parker picked up last season. Also, he had a great season last year and seemed rejuvenated on his way to tying his second-highest scoring average at 16.5 per game. He also averaged 3.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and a his most ever assists at 4.9 per game. He shoots well enough at 44% from the field and 87% from the charity stripe, plus he knocked down 132 threes last season. In fact, you could make a strong case for drafting him ahead of Duncan. There is one snag though, and that’s that Popovich likes to bring Manu off the bench a lot, so his minutes are usually in the 25-30 per game range. He’s probably about a 5th or 6th round pick, but I wouldn’t laugh at someone for reaching for him late in the 4th round. I wouldn’t pick him before OJ Mayo, Brandon Roy, or Monta Ellis, but I would pick him over Vince Carter, Kevin Martin, or Jason Terry. In a keeper league I would not pick him up earlier than the 6th round.

3. Tony Parker (PG)
Parker’s stats took a nosedive last season as his scoring dropped from 22 points per game to 16 and his assists went from 6.9 to 5.7 per game. For a point guard who is supposed to score and rack up assists, that just won’t do. It’s bad enough that he doesn’t give you much in rebounding or three-pointers, but then there’s the fact that the only stat he went up in was turnovers. I feel like he will bounce back from a rough year that saw him play in only 56 games. Still, I’m cautious when it comes to drafting fantasy teams, so I would not pick him earlier than the 6th round. I’d pick him before Johnny Flynn or Rodney Stuckey, but not before Chauncey Billups or Devin Harris. In keeper leagues, I’d probably leave him alone until the 7th round at the earliest unless all the good point guards are drying up fast.

4. George Hill (G)
Hill started 43 games last year, mostly in place of Tony Parker. However, he also switched to Shooting Guard for several games and even started alongside Parker sometimes. What does that mean? It means that he will get minutes and it means that he showed us that he is capable of putting up at least 12.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game. He plays a major role on the Spurs not only because of his ability to fill in at both guard spots in the case of injuries, but also for his defense. This is one the up-and-comers to look for with the Spurs, especially if the Spurs do mess around and trade Tony Parker. In a seasonal league, I’d pick him up no earlier than the 8th round. I’d take him before Richard Hamilton, Jrue Holiday, or Jose Calderon, but I wouldn’t take him before Jameer Nelson, Jason Richardson, or Eric Gordon. In a keeper league, I’d probably reach earlier for him, say in the 7th round.

5. DeJuan Blair (F/C)
Blair averaged 7.8 points and 6.4 boards in his rookie campaign while only playing about 18 minutes per game. This year he could start even more than last year’s 23 games. He has reportedly been working on his shooting all summer and has averaged 13.8 points in the first four games of this pre-season. He’s a double-double waiting to happen. I’d pick him up as early as the 8th round in seasonal leagues, but you may be able to catch people sleeping and grab him later in the maybe the 10th round. I’d pick him before Villanueva, Haslem, or even Elton Brand. I wouldn’t pick him before Scola, Rashard Lewis, or Carl Landry. In Keeper leagues, pick him up earlier, maybe as early as the 7th, just like George Hill.

6. Tiago Splitter (F/C)
Possibly the biggest sleeper this year, I would wager that you can get him in the last round of any draft. There are question marks everywhere with Splitter, especially now that he has some foot problems. Still, I think he will be solid and is worth a late round pick in all leagues. He was the MVP of the Spanish league and should be able to help on the boards immediately. I suspect his scoring will pick up mid-season and he will finish the year strong. In Keeper leagues, you may want to reach for him as early as the 10th round. I’d pick him before Jason Maxiell, Matt Barnes, or Drew Gooden. I wouldn’t pick him before Al Thornton, Blake Griffin, or even the injured Carlos Boozer.

7. Richard Jefferson (SF)
I’m not high on Jefferson these days for fantasy purposes. If he isn’t scoring then he isn’t doing much else for you. I’ll give him some credit for stepping up his efforts on the glass last season, but it’s not enough for me to pick him very high. I’d pick him with a late round pick, maybe as early as the 8th or 9th round if I was in a deep league with people who all knew what they were doing, but most likely I’d pick him up in a late round just because no one else wanted him and he was still there in the 10th or something. I’d pick him before Kelenna Azubuike, Omri Casspi, or Brandon Rush, but not before Josh Howard, Ron Artest, or Corey Maggette. I’d pick him way late in a keeper draft.

8. James Anderson (SG/SF)
Anderson won’t be a significant fantasy contributor this season, but I’d take him with a late round pick in a keeper draft, which is the only reason he ranks above the next two players.

9. Antonio McDyess (PF)
Worth a late round flier, but I wouldn’t pick him up in a keeper league unless I needed another Power Forward really bad.

10. Matt Bonner (PF/C)
I wouldn’t even pick him in a Keeper league except as a late rounder to boost three pointers or have an extra player with center eligibility.

In what is sure to be one of the more bizarre subplots of this summer’s free agency, Richard Jefferson inexplicably opted out of the final year of his contract. The move will cost him $15 million dollars up front. As RJ tells it:

“I probably wouldn’t make 15 (million dollars) some place, but you could somehow recoup some of that over a multi-year deal and get some guaranteed money for the next few years.

“So you figure it out. If you’re able to get four years and 40 (million dollars by opting out) from someone, it’s like, ‘OK, I did lose out on 15 (million dollars). But I’m going to get basically a $25 million extension.’ Those are things that you think of at the end of the season.”

Wait, what? He thinks he is getting a four year 40 mil deal? From who? Is Isaiah Thomas a GM again? Ok, fine – so it’s entirely possible that he will get such a deal when the dust settles and either the Knicks, Nets, Bulls, Clips, or Heat  are clamouring to fill the rosters that they gutted in vain after no one signs there – after all, Drew Gooden is getting a 5-year $32 mil deal, and that was from the Bucks who no one is thinking about. (And quiet as kept, they are building a nice squad over there.) At any rate, the Spurs now have some wiggle room to sign someone more useful this summer, and for that we can thank Dick Jefferson.

Oh, and by the way, it’s not that I forgot about the draft, but after the Spurs picked James Anderson… well, I haven’t really known what to think of that – let alone what to say about it. My first thought was something along the lines of, “huh?” Then I figured he was meant to be RJ’s eventual replacement, but still, no one I know of had him pegged as a potential Spur, and even Bill Simmons said he figured Anderson for a bust. I guess the Spurs saw something there that the rest of us didn’t see. I’ll take another look at him later and post some thoughts.

The Washington Wizards, desperate to turn over probably their entire roster after the Agent Negative 80 Million fiasco, completed a seven-player trade with the Dallas Mavericks today. That’s not a big deal until you realize that the Mavericks just got a whole lot better. The Wizards gave up Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, and DeShawn Stevenson for a package of Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, Quinton Ross, and James Singleton.

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The Spurs lost to the Mavericks 112-103 after they blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead by getting outscored 42-23 in the final period. Yes, you read that right, 42-23. That’s insane. Not just losing the lead but giving up 42 points in a quarter. The game was wack from the jump though with DeJuan Blair getting whistled for two fouls in the first minute of the game, Pop getting ejected soon after for arguing with the inept refs, and Dirk going into God Mode in the 4th quarter. The Spurs shot well for the most part, hitting 52.6% from the field in the game, and both teams went 7-of-15 from downtown. The Spurs shot one more free throw than the Mavs but made one less. The Mavs out-rebounded the Spurs 39-32 including a 12-5 edge on the offensive glass. The Spurs committed 12 turnovers in the game. The Mavs had 7. But it really all came down to that brutal 4th quarter when Dirk, after missing 13 of his first 16 shots of the game, went bonkers and started hitting everything regardless of what the defense threw at him. So I can’t really blame it on the refs even if Zach Zarba is an idiot and Joey “I Want To Destroy Tim Duncan” Crawford was on hand.

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The Spurs lost to the Mavs in OT last night even after holding them to less than 40% shooting for most of the game. The Spurs played some good defense, but there were still some glaring problems, namely injuries, interior defense, and turnovers. I won’t play the injury card since the Mavs were without Shawn Marion (ankle), Josh Howard (ankle), and Erick Dampier (illness). However, it is worth noting that the Spurs did not have Tony Parker last night, who aggravated his ankle injury against the Thunder. Manu Ginobili started but played only seven minutes before retreating to the locker room with a groin injury. Still, the bigger problems were that, A) the Spurs allowed 46 points in the paint compared to the Mavs allowing only 22, and B) the Spurs turned the ball over 18 times leading to 19 Mavericks points. Meanwhile, the Mavs turned it over only 5 times leading to only 2 Spurs points. Read more »

In case you missed my draft diary for the Writers League, check it out here.  It’s been three weeks since the season started and I gotta tell you, my team is struggling. We were able to pull out a much needed TIE last week. That’s right, I was settling for “not losing”. I don’t get it, my teams are great in my other leagues, but I am getting pummeled in this one. I’m going to try and figure out why and chronicle it right here.  Read more »

The Spurs, playing without Tony Parker and Tim Duncan for the second straight game, beat the Mavericks with relative ease last night. They led most of the way, although Dallas made a push in the 4th quarter when they outscored the Spurs 19-13. The Mavs went on a 15-4 run that saw the Spurs shoot an ugly 1-of-10 from the field and commit six turnovers while the Mavs cut the lead to 83-79. Fortunately, with three minutes to go, Matt Bonner nailed a three-pointer that gave the Spurs enough breathing room to hang on for the win. It was a timely shot since the Spurs’ three-point shooting started tailing off right at the end there and was looking a little flat. Read more »

So, some of the Fanball Writers decided to form a Fantasy Basketball League. The league settings are as follows:
16 Teams, Head-to-Head, 2 Divisions
Roster Positions: PG, SG, G, SF, PF, F, C, C, Util, Util, BN, BN, BN
Scoring Catagories: Field Goal Percentage (FG%), Free Throw Percentage (FT%), 3-point Shots Made (3PTM), Points Scored (PTS), Total Rebounds (REB), Assists (AST), Steals (ST), Blocked Shots (BLK)
My Team: Prestige Worldwide (Yeah, like the movie “Step Brothers”)

Here is my breakdown of the draft:

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