Spurs of the Moment

With the NBA season less than two weeks away, it’s time to unveil my Top 10 Spurs Fantasy Players. I am going to examine their value from a seasonal league and a keeper league perspective, and I will also name a few players who will be in similar draft positions so that you will get an idea of where to value them. Hopefully this information can help you all draft better teams than you would have otherwise… unless you’re in a league with me.

1. Tim Duncan (PF)
Duncan is the obvious choice here. Well, almost obvious. The concerns with Duncan – mainly injury history and age – are the same for the Spurs’ other two top dogs – Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. That’s why I can’t lower him for anyone else on the team, but it is worth mentioning that last year Duncan averaged his lowest rebounds (10.1 per game), points (17.9 per game), and blocks (1.5 per game) ever. His minutes went down to 31:18 per game, and the plan is to lower his minutes more this season as well as rest him in the second of back-to-back games. When he plays he will be the same double-double machine on most nights, but I wouldn’t recommend drafting him any higher than a 3rd round pick. For Power Forwards, I’d pick Amare, Dirk, Bosh, Pau Gasol, or David Lee before Duncan. However, I would pick Duncan before Zach Randolph, Odom, Millsap, or Jeff Green. In a Keeper League, this might be the last year you can get something for him in a trade, and I would avoid him in Keeper drafts unless he’s lingering there in the 6th or 7th round.

2. Manu Ginobili (SG)
Gino moves ahead of Parker for a couple of reasons. First off, he has seemingly shaken off the injury label – the same one that Parker picked up last season. Also, he had a great season last year and seemed rejuvenated on his way to tying his second-highest scoring average at 16.5 per game. He also averaged 3.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and a his most ever assists at 4.9 per game. He shoots well enough at 44% from the field and 87% from the charity stripe, plus he knocked down 132 threes last season. In fact, you could make a strong case for drafting him ahead of Duncan. There is one snag though, and that’s that Popovich likes to bring Manu off the bench a lot, so his minutes are usually in the 25-30 per game range. He’s probably about a 5th or 6th round pick, but I wouldn’t laugh at someone for reaching for him late in the 4th round. I wouldn’t pick him before OJ Mayo, Brandon Roy, or Monta Ellis, but I would pick him over Vince Carter, Kevin Martin, or Jason Terry. In a keeper league I would not pick him up earlier than the 6th round.

3. Tony Parker (PG)
Parker’s stats took a nosedive last season as his scoring dropped from 22 points per game to 16 and his assists went from 6.9 to 5.7 per game. For a point guard who is supposed to score and rack up assists, that just won’t do. It’s bad enough that he doesn’t give you much in rebounding or three-pointers, but then there’s the fact that the only stat he went up in was turnovers. I feel like he will bounce back from a rough year that saw him play in only 56 games. Still, I’m cautious when it comes to drafting fantasy teams, so I would not pick him earlier than the 6th round. I’d pick him before Johnny Flynn or Rodney Stuckey, but not before Chauncey Billups or Devin Harris. In keeper leagues, I’d probably leave him alone until the 7th round at the earliest unless all the good point guards are drying up fast.

4. George Hill (G)
Hill started 43 games last year, mostly in place of Tony Parker. However, he also switched to Shooting Guard for several games and even started alongside Parker sometimes. What does that mean? It means that he will get minutes and it means that he showed us that he is capable of putting up at least 12.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game. He plays a major role on the Spurs not only because of his ability to fill in at both guard spots in the case of injuries, but also for his defense. This is one the up-and-comers to look for with the Spurs, especially if the Spurs do mess around and trade Tony Parker. In a seasonal league, I’d pick him up no earlier than the 8th round. I’d take him before Richard Hamilton, Jrue Holiday, or Jose Calderon, but I wouldn’t take him before Jameer Nelson, Jason Richardson, or Eric Gordon. In a keeper league, I’d probably reach earlier for him, say in the 7th round.

5. DeJuan Blair (F/C)
Blair averaged 7.8 points and 6.4 boards in his rookie campaign while only playing about 18 minutes per game. This year he could start even more than last year’s 23 games. He has reportedly been working on his shooting all summer and has averaged 13.8 points in the first four games of this pre-season. He’s a double-double waiting to happen. I’d pick him up as early as the 8th round in seasonal leagues, but you may be able to catch people sleeping and grab him later in the maybe the 10th round. I’d pick him before Villanueva, Haslem, or even Elton Brand. I wouldn’t pick him before Scola, Rashard Lewis, or Carl Landry. In Keeper leagues, pick him up earlier, maybe as early as the 7th, just like George Hill.

6. Tiago Splitter (F/C)
Possibly the biggest sleeper this year, I would wager that you can get him in the last round of any draft. There are question marks everywhere with Splitter, especially now that he has some foot problems. Still, I think he will be solid and is worth a late round pick in all leagues. He was the MVP of the Spanish league and should be able to help on the boards immediately. I suspect his scoring will pick up mid-season and he will finish the year strong. In Keeper leagues, you may want to reach for him as early as the 10th round. I’d pick him before Jason Maxiell, Matt Barnes, or Drew Gooden. I wouldn’t pick him before Al Thornton, Blake Griffin, or even the injured Carlos Boozer.

7. Richard Jefferson (SF)
I’m not high on Jefferson these days for fantasy purposes. If he isn’t scoring then he isn’t doing much else for you. I’ll give him some credit for stepping up his efforts on the glass last season, but it’s not enough for me to pick him very high. I’d pick him with a late round pick, maybe as early as the 8th or 9th round if I was in a deep league with people who all knew what they were doing, but most likely I’d pick him up in a late round just because no one else wanted him and he was still there in the 10th or something. I’d pick him before Kelenna Azubuike, Omri Casspi, or Brandon Rush, but not before Josh Howard, Ron Artest, or Corey Maggette. I’d pick him way late in a keeper draft.

8. James Anderson (SG/SF)
Anderson won’t be a significant fantasy contributor this season, but I’d take him with a late round pick in a keeper draft, which is the only reason he ranks above the next two players.

9. Antonio McDyess (PF)
Worth a late round flier, but I wouldn’t pick him up in a keeper league unless I needed another Power Forward really bad.

10. Matt Bonner (PF/C)
I wouldn’t even pick him in a Keeper league except as a late rounder to boost three pointers or have an extra player with center eligibility.

The Spurs defeated the Mavs 97-87  and won the series 4-2. The Suns finished off the Blazers last night 99-90 and will be the next team the Spurs face.

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You know that saying, “Don’t let your mouth write a check your body can’t cash”? I’m sure we’ve all heard at least one variation of that saying anyway. Well, it appears that Jason Terry is out of the loop there because he is starting to run his mouth after the Mavs staved off elimination in Game 5. According to Jason Terry, “No question. We’re coming back,” he said. “We have to. It’s our mission. Our job is to go down there and get this win and come on back.”

Has Terry learned nothing from Charlie Villanueva’s “Twitter Fail” during the regular season? Villanueva guaranteed his Pistons would earn a victory over the Raptors only to watch his team lose 111-97. If you were watching the Knicks back in the 90s then you are undoubtedly familiar with Patrick Ewing’s endless “guarantees”. Incidently, he has no championship rings to speak of. There are countless examples of desperate fools “guaranteeing” victories that they can’t deliver. In two days we may be adding Terry to that list.

It’s great to be confident and get your team fired up, but it’s also stupid to give your opponent any extra fire of their own, especially when that opponent has four championships to your none, has owned you as of late, is going to be at home, and could use your idiocy to rally around after a loss.

Manu Ginobili is at it again. Bleeding from a nasal fracture from a Dirk elbow in the third quarter, Manu bandaged that sucker up and scored another 11 points in the 4th quarter to keep the Mavs at bay in a 94-90 win. Dallas went on a little run to take a nine point lead late in the game, but it wasn’t enough. Ginobili finished with 15 points, five rebounds, seven assists, three steals, and one block. He is now averaging 21.3 points in this series. He did much of his damage last night by getting to the free throw line where he was 7-of-8. The Spurs shot 20-of-26 from the line in this game while the Mavs went 14-of-15.

George Hill decided to finally join the party last night. He had 17 points, five rebounds, one assist, one steal, and one block. Nice to see you, George. The Spurs needed him to step up since RJ faded into the background again and Tony Parker is playing well enough as a reserve that Popovich probably would like to keep that going. RJ finished with six points, three rebounds, and three assists. Parker finished with 23 points, four rebounds, three assists, and one steal. He is averaging 19 points in the series.

Tim Duncan had 25 points, five rebounds, four assists, and one block. He didn’t really crash the boards, but then again, no one did. There were no double-doubles in this game from either team. The main thing for Duncan is he had another five turnovers. He had six in Game 1, but none in Game 2. He is averaging 25.7 points in this series.

The rebounding edge belonged to no one as both teams were even in that department. Turnovers were about the same as well. However, the Spurs shot 11 more free throws than Dallas. Of course, they also missed every three-point attempt while Dallas went 8-of-20 from downtown. In the end, it was just slightly better shooting that made the difference as the Spurs shot 48.7% from the field compared to 44.7% for Dallas.

Dirk was the best player for the Mavs, as usual, with 35 points, seven rebounds, three asssits, two steals, and one block. Also, Jason Terry is doing his thing off the bench still. He finished with 17 points and was 4-of-8 from beyond the arc.

The Dampier/Haywood tandem was as pitiful as ever finishing with a combined four points, eight rebounds, one steal, one turnover, and seven fouls. Wow, they can’t even manage a double-double  between them – and in a combined 45 minutes? Even the Spurs’ DeJuan Blair had two points, five rebounds, one assist and no turnovers last night, and he only played about 4 minutes. Caron Butler and Shawn Marion have been non-factors in the past two games, well Marion has been a non-factor in all three. Granted Rick Carlisle opted to go with the hot-shooting J.J. Barea (14 points) for much of Game 3 instead of Butler, the fact of the matter is Butler needs to show up for the Mavs to have any chance. Shawn Marion is not any better and hasn’t reached double digits in scoring or rebounding once in this series. The Mavericks picked these two guys up specifically for this moment and neither is worth a flip right now. The Mavs have no chance of winning it all this year even if they miraculously make it past the Spurs. Frankenhead will probably spend another few million to bring in another fringe star, former All-Star, or overrated has-been this summer and everyone will get all excited until this time next year when the Mavs start falling apart yet again. Tsk. Tsk.

Check out the Game Highlights.

I couldn’t help but goad Chris Stuckey from MavsBall.com into a little smack talk over the first round matchup between the Spurs and Mavs. Here’s our email exchange:

Brian (Spurs of the Moment) vs Chris (MavsBall)

Brian: Chris, I noticed you mentioned that Popovich was being arrogant since he benched Duncan and Ginobili for the season finale. I think it was more a testament to a) not wanting to risk injury to a key player after finally getting everyone healthy again, and b) not wanting to risk facing the Jazz. What do you think?
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Chris: If you say that resting Ginobili and Duncan was in part due to the fact that the Spurs did not want to risk playing the Jazz, you are disrespecting Mavs. I understand not wanting to risk injury, but the Jazz excuse is weak.
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Yeah, Utah is crazy good at home and if the Spurs had to play the Jazz they would be playing that series without the luxury of home court advantage.  That would certainly be a tough task but why would playing the Mavs be an easier?  Who has the best road record of any team in the Western Conference?  That would be the Dallas Mavericks.Â
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Let me get this straight.  The Spurs would rather play a team that is great at home and the best on the road than a team that is one game over .500 on the road?  Child, please.
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Brian: Given that the Jazz beat the Spurs all four times this season I am personally more worried about them than those choke artist Mavs, then again, maybe I am crazy (probably) and Popovich could care less. That’s entirely plausible and probably the case. The concern over injury is legit though. After all, Manu missing the playoffs last year sure didn’t hurt the Mavs effort to advance.
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Chris: Sounds to me like Pops is trying to channel his inner-Phil Jackson.  Head games galore.  The media is making this more of a story than it really is and I guarantee you Pops is loving it.  But I do think that Pops wanted the Mavs and that’s exactly what he got.  Be ready.
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Brian: What do you think are keys to this series for the Mavericks?
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Chris: The Mavs can’t let Ginobili beat them.  Manu is by far the best player on that eyesore of a Spurs roster and when healthy he is borderline dominant.  But that’s where Shawn Marion enters the picture.  The Matrix is the best defender in the league…yeah I said it.  Beware.
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Some other keys are bench scoring and the battle of the second scoring options.
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Brian: Which league are we talking about again? I’m just wondering if that’s the same Shawn Marion that let Richard Jefferson drop 29 on the Mavs earlier this year, then have a 13-point and 11-rebound game, and a 15 point game after that? I’ll be the first to admit that RJ took a long time to adjust to the Spurs system, but the Mavs are going to have to account for him cuz he seems to have an easier time against them.
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Bench scoring I think will be a wash. The Mavs have some nice backups in Terry and Beaubois, the Spurs have Blair and Hill. Even Matt Bonner and Roger Mason can be problematic when they come in and start hitting threes right away. The problem for the Mavs is that Blair is a madman on the glass and can grab a ton of offensive boards. Dirk or Marion are likely to get an arm ripped off they try to battle him for a rebound. I gotta admit that Haywood is going to be a nuisance, but I think McDyess and Blair can hold down the fort – not to mention Duncan.
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Chris:  It’s hard to take Matt Bonner seriously when my banker looks more athletic. The dude can shoot but he’s streaky at best. Just another reason to not like the Spurs.
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Is Blair going to get many minutes? He’s a rookie with no playoff experience or ACLs.

Brian: Ahh, the ACLs again. They didn’t stop him from having a 27-point, 23 rebound game in the season finale in Dallas. I don’t expect that in the playoffs, but he is clearly a force on the glass and can give the Mavs problems in the paint.
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What matchup do you think the Spurs should be most worried about?
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Chris: The big German. Honestly, who on the Spurs can guard Dirk Nowitzki?  Still thinking?  Perusing the roster?  Yeah, I can answer that.  No one.  Prepare the double-team.  But just want to let you know, Dirk will throw 10 assists on the Spurs if they double him.
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Brian:  You may have forgotten about this guy named Tim Duncan, but he is a pretty decent Power Forward and has been known to play some good defense. Now if Dirk actually remembers how to take the ball to the hole he might do well, but I don’t see him sticking a ton of those jump shots over Duncan. Never know though, they usually have a pretty good battle, especially when the teams are both at full strength which neither team has really been in any meeting this year. I don’t think Dirk can count on another silly foul from Ginobili to help them squeak into the next round though.

What matchup are you most worried about?
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Chris:  You must be talking about the Mavs currently unknown second round opponent…right?  Nah.  I’m just kidding.  The Mavs should be worried about Ginobili. They can’t sleep on him or his bald spot.
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Brian: I would agree with that. And yes, the bald spot has a dizzying, hypnotic sort of power. We have already seen it work against Dampier, or is he always that useless?
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Chris:  Ask Timmy D if Dampier is useless then get back to me.

It’s your turn.  What matchup are you most worried about?

Brian: You mean besides a classic Duncan vs Dampier battle? Hmm, I would have to agree with you and say Dirk. Like I said, if he settles for jumpers all series then the Mavs are beatable. When he goes to the rack, the rest of the team follows his lead and that’s when they get to be the most dangerous since as soon as teams start clogging the paint it starts raining threes. Duncan’s lateral movement isn’t what it once was, so if Dirk insists on taking him or McDyess off the dribble more often than not then we’re in for some long nights. Heaven forbid Popovich puts Bonner on him.
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Chris:  Let’s get this on the record.  What is your official series prediction?  I have the Mavs taking down the Spurs in six games.  The Mavs are simply a better basketball team.  Don’t be a homer, Brian.

Brian: I say Spurs in six. It will be Miami and Golden State all over again. High expectations and no delivery, but either way it should be another great Texas Shootout.

 

Thanks, Chris! I know we’re both looking forward to Sunday night’s tipoff and more smack talk next week!

Go Spurs!

The Washington Wizards, desperate to turn over probably their entire roster after the Agent Negative 80 Million fiasco, completed a seven-player trade with the Dallas Mavericks today. That’s not a big deal until you realize that the Mavericks just got a whole lot better. The Wizards gave up Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, and DeShawn Stevenson for a package of Josh Howard, Drew Gooden, Quinton Ross, and James Singleton.

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The Spurs lost to the Mavericks 112-103 after they blew a 10-point 4th quarter lead by getting outscored 42-23 in the final period. Yes, you read that right, 42-23. That’s insane. Not just losing the lead but giving up 42 points in a quarter. The game was wack from the jump though with DeJuan Blair getting whistled for two fouls in the first minute of the game, Pop getting ejected soon after for arguing with the inept refs, and Dirk going into God Mode in the 4th quarter. The Spurs shot well for the most part, hitting 52.6% from the field in the game, and both teams went 7-of-15 from downtown. The Spurs shot one more free throw than the Mavs but made one less. The Mavs out-rebounded the Spurs 39-32 including a 12-5 edge on the offensive glass. The Spurs committed 12 turnovers in the game. The Mavs had 7. But it really all came down to that brutal 4th quarter when Dirk, after missing 13 of his first 16 shots of the game, went bonkers and started hitting everything regardless of what the defense threw at him. So I can’t really blame it on the refs even if Zach Zarba is an idiot and Joey “I Want To Destroy Tim Duncan” Crawford was on hand.

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The Spurs lost to the Mavs in OT last night even after holding them to less than 40% shooting for most of the game. The Spurs played some good defense, but there were still some glaring problems, namely injuries, interior defense, and turnovers. I won’t play the injury card since the Mavs were without Shawn Marion (ankle), Josh Howard (ankle), and Erick Dampier (illness). However, it is worth noting that the Spurs did not have Tony Parker last night, who aggravated his ankle injury against the Thunder. Manu Ginobili started but played only seven minutes before retreating to the locker room with a groin injury. Still, the bigger problems were that, A) the Spurs allowed 46 points in the paint compared to the Mavs allowing only 22, and B) the Spurs turned the ball over 18 times leading to 19 Mavericks points. Meanwhile, the Mavs turned it over only 5 times leading to only 2 Spurs points. Read more »

The Spurs, playing without Tony Parker and Tim Duncan for the second straight game, beat the Mavericks with relative ease last night. They led most of the way, although Dallas made a push in the 4th quarter when they outscored the Spurs 19-13. The Mavs went on a 15-4 run that saw the Spurs shoot an ugly 1-of-10 from the field and commit six turnovers while the Mavs cut the lead to 83-79. Fortunately, with three minutes to go, Matt Bonner nailed a three-pointer that gave the Spurs enough breathing room to hang on for the win. It was a timely shot since the Spurs’ three-point shooting started tailing off right at the end there and was looking a little flat. Read more »