Spurs of the Moment

Looking at the evidence of the last two articles, it would seem that if Tony Parker were simply in another system, and also without the creative services of Manu Ginobili, then he would be a top point guard – someone you can build your team around and win with. However, it’s not nearly that simple or true.  Two significant factors separate Tony Parker from guys like Steve Nash and Chris Paul: 1) Decision Making/Court Vision, 2) Perimeter Shooting.                  

Decision Making 

When Nash, or Paul, or anybody for that matter, runs a pick-n-roll, they always have options. What is done with those options usually shows the difference between a true point guard and a scoring point guard. In Dallas, when Nash would run a screen and roll with Nowitzki, a switch in defenders would normally be the result. What would Nash do with his options? He would wait for Dirk to establish good position mid-post (about 15 feet out) and pass him the ball. That would allow Dirk to take uncontested mid-range jumpers, because he was being guarded by the other team’s point guard. For Nash, giving up the ball to Dirk on a switch opens up even more (easy) options for him. If he gets the ball back from Dirk,  he can pass to an open teammate due to the defense shifting because of the mismatch Dirk has. Or he can take the open jumper since his taller, less mobile defender is probably sagging back due to his driving ability. Chris Paul does the same thing with David West. In each situation with Nash or Paul, they make decisions that don’t always get them assists, but give the main scorers on their team (Dirk/West) easier circumstances to operate under.            

Court Vision

We all know Nash and CP3 have court vision, but the point is that you can basically take four other guys in the NBA (at their respective positions) and put them with Nash or CP3 and it’s almost guaranteed they’ll get that team to 100 pts by the end of four quarters. What about Tony Parker? Parker always looks to score off a pick-n-roll, even if there is a switch in defenders. This takes away easy post-up/scoring opportunities for players that are bigger and don’t get plays run for them (Splitter, Blair, and Jefferson). Also, players don’t cut to the basket because Parker either doesn’t see them or is not comfortable making the pass.  In transition, Parker usually gets the ball and looks to take it all the way for the “score” even if there aren’t favorable numbers. Because of that, players that can score in transition (Jefferson, Anderson, and former Spur George Hill) don’t get easy opportunities since the ball-handler is so far ahead of them. (Note)  When Ginobili handles the ball on the break, several players get a chance and have scored (Blair, Hill, and Jefferson especially).                                    

Perimeter Shooting

Point guards that have a consistent midrange jumpshot are generally harder to stop than point guards that are lightning quick. Also, when running the most basic of NBA plays (Pick-n-roll / Isolation for a post player) the other players on the floor don’t have to be big perimeter threats. Example: Jose Calderon from the Toronto Raptors is one of the most underrated point guards in the NBA. Why? He is slow, somewhat skinny and isn’t a great one-on-one player. However, over the last 4 seasons Jose Calderon has averaged 11 points per game ( 40% 3PT FG, 48% FG overall) and 8 assists per game (only 1.8 turnovers per game). Calderon runs a lot of pick-n-rolls, as does every point guard. Because of his shooting ability, however, he has a lot more options than a point guard that is simply quick. In addition to driving for a layup or kicking out to a 3-point shooter, when the defense goes under a screen he can knock down jumpers pretty much all night. If the defense traps him he can make the outside-in pass to the player that set the screen for an easy dunk or 10-foot jumper. All of that is accomplished simply because he a can knock down shots.

What about Tony Parker? To start, many Spurs fans complain about other players besides Parker; two players in particular - 1) Richard Jefferson 2) Matt Bonner. Why is Richard Jefferson not a very consistent scorer on the Spurs? (a player who averaged 20 points per game before joining the Spurs) or Why does Matt Bonner get heavy minutes? (a frontcourt player who is arguably the worst defender and definitely worst rebounder on the team). The answer is Tony Parker’s shooting ability. Parker, like many point guards in the league, is fast but has a jumpshot that comes and goes. YES, Parker does have the ability to get to the rim and score around 20 points while shooting a high percentage. ONLY WITH THE RIGHT SPACING. That’s why Richard Jefferson, a player who was known to slash, dunk, and get many trips to the free throw line is relegated to shooting 3′s from Bruce Bowen’s corner. Matt Bonner is a one-dimensional player who would normally get minutes only in special situations or when someone is injured. Just look at the minutes that guys like Brian Cardinal and Steve Novak get. Add to that the fact they don’t get big contracts or stay on a team very long. Because of Parker’s need for space to drive, Bonner is essential to helping the offense flow when it’s being run by Parker. What happens to Parker when guys back off, stay home on shooters, and allow him to take jumpshots all game? Look what happened to Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose during the conference finals.

The Truth: Parker is not a top point guard, he is an above average point guard. One San Antonio talk show host referred to Parker as a “20 (points) and 5 (assists) guy”. Tony Parker has above average skills in certain areas. For him to be a top point guard, he has to fill the holes in his game. Namely, his shooting from the perimeter must be a lot more consistent. He also needs to be a more willing passer. Nothing spectacular, but simply giving the ball to players in areas that they can operate. So, while Parker is not a guy you wanna build a championship team around, he is still an important piece for the Spurs if they ever want to win a championship again.

With the NBA season less than two weeks away, it’s time to unveil my Top 10 Spurs Fantasy Players. I am going to examine their value from a seasonal league and a keeper league perspective, and I will also name a few players who will be in similar draft positions so that you will get an idea of where to value them. Hopefully this information can help you all draft better teams than you would have otherwise… unless you’re in a league with me.

1. Tim Duncan (PF)
Duncan is the obvious choice here. Well, almost obvious. The concerns with Duncan – mainly injury history and age – are the same for the Spurs’ other two top dogs – Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. That’s why I can’t lower him for anyone else on the team, but it is worth mentioning that last year Duncan averaged his lowest rebounds (10.1 per game), points (17.9 per game), and blocks (1.5 per game) ever. His minutes went down to 31:18 per game, and the plan is to lower his minutes more this season as well as rest him in the second of back-to-back games. When he plays he will be the same double-double machine on most nights, but I wouldn’t recommend drafting him any higher than a 3rd round pick. For Power Forwards, I’d pick Amare, Dirk, Bosh, Pau Gasol, or David Lee before Duncan. However, I would pick Duncan before Zach Randolph, Odom, Millsap, or Jeff Green. In a Keeper League, this might be the last year you can get something for him in a trade, and I would avoid him in Keeper drafts unless he’s lingering there in the 6th or 7th round.

2. Manu Ginobili (SG)
Gino moves ahead of Parker for a couple of reasons. First off, he has seemingly shaken off the injury label – the same one that Parker picked up last season. Also, he had a great season last year and seemed rejuvenated on his way to tying his second-highest scoring average at 16.5 per game. He also averaged 3.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and a his most ever assists at 4.9 per game. He shoots well enough at 44% from the field and 87% from the charity stripe, plus he knocked down 132 threes last season. In fact, you could make a strong case for drafting him ahead of Duncan. There is one snag though, and that’s that Popovich likes to bring Manu off the bench a lot, so his minutes are usually in the 25-30 per game range. He’s probably about a 5th or 6th round pick, but I wouldn’t laugh at someone for reaching for him late in the 4th round. I wouldn’t pick him before OJ Mayo, Brandon Roy, or Monta Ellis, but I would pick him over Vince Carter, Kevin Martin, or Jason Terry. In a keeper league I would not pick him up earlier than the 6th round.

3. Tony Parker (PG)
Parker’s stats took a nosedive last season as his scoring dropped from 22 points per game to 16 and his assists went from 6.9 to 5.7 per game. For a point guard who is supposed to score and rack up assists, that just won’t do. It’s bad enough that he doesn’t give you much in rebounding or three-pointers, but then there’s the fact that the only stat he went up in was turnovers. I feel like he will bounce back from a rough year that saw him play in only 56 games. Still, I’m cautious when it comes to drafting fantasy teams, so I would not pick him earlier than the 6th round. I’d pick him before Johnny Flynn or Rodney Stuckey, but not before Chauncey Billups or Devin Harris. In keeper leagues, I’d probably leave him alone until the 7th round at the earliest unless all the good point guards are drying up fast.

4. George Hill (G)
Hill started 43 games last year, mostly in place of Tony Parker. However, he also switched to Shooting Guard for several games and even started alongside Parker sometimes. What does that mean? It means that he will get minutes and it means that he showed us that he is capable of putting up at least 12.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game. He plays a major role on the Spurs not only because of his ability to fill in at both guard spots in the case of injuries, but also for his defense. This is one the up-and-comers to look for with the Spurs, especially if the Spurs do mess around and trade Tony Parker. In a seasonal league, I’d pick him up no earlier than the 8th round. I’d take him before Richard Hamilton, Jrue Holiday, or Jose Calderon, but I wouldn’t take him before Jameer Nelson, Jason Richardson, or Eric Gordon. In a keeper league, I’d probably reach earlier for him, say in the 7th round.

5. DeJuan Blair (F/C)
Blair averaged 7.8 points and 6.4 boards in his rookie campaign while only playing about 18 minutes per game. This year he could start even more than last year’s 23 games. He has reportedly been working on his shooting all summer and has averaged 13.8 points in the first four games of this pre-season. He’s a double-double waiting to happen. I’d pick him up as early as the 8th round in seasonal leagues, but you may be able to catch people sleeping and grab him later in the maybe the 10th round. I’d pick him before Villanueva, Haslem, or even Elton Brand. I wouldn’t pick him before Scola, Rashard Lewis, or Carl Landry. In Keeper leagues, pick him up earlier, maybe as early as the 7th, just like George Hill.

6. Tiago Splitter (F/C)
Possibly the biggest sleeper this year, I would wager that you can get him in the last round of any draft. There are question marks everywhere with Splitter, especially now that he has some foot problems. Still, I think he will be solid and is worth a late round pick in all leagues. He was the MVP of the Spanish league and should be able to help on the boards immediately. I suspect his scoring will pick up mid-season and he will finish the year strong. In Keeper leagues, you may want to reach for him as early as the 10th round. I’d pick him before Jason Maxiell, Matt Barnes, or Drew Gooden. I wouldn’t pick him before Al Thornton, Blake Griffin, or even the injured Carlos Boozer.

7. Richard Jefferson (SF)
I’m not high on Jefferson these days for fantasy purposes. If he isn’t scoring then he isn’t doing much else for you. I’ll give him some credit for stepping up his efforts on the glass last season, but it’s not enough for me to pick him very high. I’d pick him with a late round pick, maybe as early as the 8th or 9th round if I was in a deep league with people who all knew what they were doing, but most likely I’d pick him up in a late round just because no one else wanted him and he was still there in the 10th or something. I’d pick him before Kelenna Azubuike, Omri Casspi, or Brandon Rush, but not before Josh Howard, Ron Artest, or Corey Maggette. I’d pick him way late in a keeper draft.

8. James Anderson (SG/SF)
Anderson won’t be a significant fantasy contributor this season, but I’d take him with a late round pick in a keeper draft, which is the only reason he ranks above the next two players.

9. Antonio McDyess (PF)
Worth a late round flier, but I wouldn’t pick him up in a keeper league unless I needed another Power Forward really bad.

10. Matt Bonner (PF/C)
I wouldn’t even pick him in a Keeper league except as a late rounder to boost three pointers or have an extra player with center eligibility.

So much for projected starting lineups. Duncan was a late scratch from last night’s game with an ankle injury suffered against Portland. So going into last night without Duncan or Parker looked slightly bleak. Read more »

Tony Parker, San Antonio’s leading scorer, is not expected to play in the Spurs game tonight against Toronto, and he could miss about a week with his ankle sprain. He rolled the ankle in the second quarter of the Blazers game. This means that George Hill is going to be starting for the next few games and is a good pickup off your fantasy basketball waiver wire right now. At least for the week. Read more »