Spurs of the Moment

Don’t look now but the Spurs just won four games in a row – the last three against the alleged contenders of the Western Conference. Granted the Mavs were without Dirk, it’s still satisfying to watch S.A. smash thru the early conference favorites one after the other.

After beating the Lakers 97-82 last Tuesday, the Spurs went on to beat the Mavs in Dallas on Thursday 99-93. That was an interesting game since the Mavericks were without Dirk Nowitzki but the Mavericks still gave the Spurs all they could handle behind Caron Butler’s season-high 30 points and yet another triple-double from Jason Kidd. Unfortunately for the Mavericks, Tim Duncan had a bounce back game with 17 points and 11 rebounds, and Gary Neal came off the bench to bombard Dallas with 21 points of his own. I kind of had to laugh at the Mavs starting Brian Cardinal. Did they think he could pass for Nowitzki and draw double-teams or something? Anyway, the poor Mavs – who I actually am more worried about than the Lakers right now – suffered another setback when Caron Butler hurt is knee in their next game, a loss in Milwaukee. finally, the Spurs completely dismantled the Thunder 101-74 on Saturday night. They held Kevin Durant to 16 points and the Thunder to 33% shooting from the field. Only Serge Ibaka came to play with 14 points, 13 boards, four blocks, and a steal – although he shot only 5-of-13 from the floor himself. Tim Duncan led all scorers with 21 points while Tony Parker had 14 points and 10 dimes.

So there the Spurs sit atop the West – the league in fact – with a 29-4 record. Nearly halfway thru the season I have to say that I think they’re only contending with three teams this year: The Mavericks (25-8), the Celtics (25-7), and maybe Miami’s Dwyane Wade and Friends (26-9). Orlando has an outside shot with their revamped roster, and Lakers can’t be counted out just yet, but if I had to call it now then I’d say get ready for a Spurs-Celtics finals. I just don’t see anyone in the West with the depth or the championship pedigree of the Spurs. Dallas is deep but are not proven winners. The Lakers are winners, but their depth is non-existent – and WTF happened to Ron Artest? Can someone chuck a beer at this clown and get his blood pumping again? As for the East, the Celtics are the clear front-runner so long as they can remain healthy during the playoffs. It seems that they are getting their injuries out of the way early this season (Rondo, Pierce, Garnett, Shaq) so maybe that won’t be an issue. Miami is kind of a question mark. They are figuring out how to win, but can they do it in a 7-game series against a quality team? I say no. And they have to remain healthy too. Losing Haslem hurt them a lot and their interior defense was weak to begin with. Can LeBron and Wade win them four games in a series on their own? Probably not.

Next up to bat are the New York Knicks, who are actually one of my favorite teams. Yes, I grew up loving the Knicks – partially cuz I was a kid who was happy to sport some Ewing sneakers, I hated Michael Jordan and all of his zombie-like worshippers, and gravitated to the scrappiness of players like Xavier McDaniel, Charles Oakley, and John Starks. Chris Childs punching Kobe also helped. Having said all that, the Knicks stand no chance. The Spurs are just better in every way, and the Knicks will be without Danilo Gallinari who is expected to miss the next 2-3 weeks with a sprained knee. So with that, I expect the Spurs to notch their 5th win in row tomorrow night.

Well, the Magic definitely looked like they were an improved team after their recent trades, but unfortunately they decided to do so against the Spurs. It wasn’t even very close as the Spurs lost 123-101. It’s pretty difficult to win games when you allow the other team to score 123 points on 60% shooting. Gilbert Arenas finally came back to life and scored 14 points with nine assists and six boards, and is now looking more like a good fit with Orlando. They also got 15 points from Jason Richardson and 11 from Hedo Turkoglu. I don’t think they will miss Rashard Lewis and his lack of rebounding prowess. I am not worried about them too much, but I do sincerely hope they beat the crap out of Miami from now on.

Anyway, the Spurs were pretty much done in by poor defense and some off-shooting by Ginobili and a few others. Collectively they only shot 42% from the filed. George Hill is still out with a “strained right big toe” (huh?), but Gary Neal has continued to pick up the slack. Neal is now averaging 17.8 points and three rebounds in the past four games that Hill has missed. He’s shooting 47% from the field, 84% from the line, and 42% from downtown (11-for-26). Not too shabby.

Notable Spurs Stat Lines
Tim Duncan: 12 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist. Duncan shot 50% from the field and only played 20 minutes.
Tony Parker: 16 points, 3 assists, 1 rebounds. He also had 3 turnovers… his A/T ratio has been a decent 2.8 this season, but that sucked. He shot 7-0f-12 from the field tho.
Manu Ginobili: 10 points, 6 assists, 5 boards, and 1 block. He only shot 3-of-10 from the field and played just 20 minutes also.
DeJuan Blair: 10 points, 5 boards, 2 assists, and 3 steals. I am still not sure what to make of Blair this season. He can grab potentially 15 boards a game, but just hasn’t been getting close most nights.�
Tiago Splitter: 11 points, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, and a block. Splitter had one of his better games so far in just over 17 minutes of action.
Richard Jeffferson: 10 points, 6 boards, 2 assists, and a steal. A little disappointing considering he played 30 minutes.
Matt Bonner: 10 points, 6 boards, 1 steal. And in seven fewer minutes than RJ.
Gary Neal: 16 points, 2 rebounds. His scoring has been great, but the lack of peripherals is worrisome. The NBA doesn’t need another scorer/one-trick-pony.

Highlights/Recap:

It’s been a weird month and a half to say the least. Being unable to post about the Spurs going 23-3 has been a little disappointing, but I can’t be too upset – I meant they’re 23-3! Plus they’re on (another) 8-game winning streak. About 1/3 through the season and the Spurs have the best record, and they are doing it with basically the same team from last year. RJ adapted in a big way, Manu is playing like an MVP, Duncan is rolling along as usual, and even Parker has been decent in spite of the impending divorce. (The divorce sucks by the way… it’s always nice to see Eva in the stands if only cuz it keeps the camera from showing us random people who look like they aren’t sure how to cheer or if they even want to be at the game. Plus she looks better than a dude wearing a Duncan jersey.) Tiago Splitter and DeJuan Blair – the two players who were supposed to make a significant impact this year – haven’t really done anything special to be honest. I’m not worried though. They play their roles and that’s what matters now.

Around the League
The Celtics and Mavs actually look pretty strong this year and Miami is in the midst of a 12 game winning streak as well. I still don’t think the Miami Dwyane Wades can compete with the Celtics in the playoffs tho. Also, Orlando just beefed up big time with the acquisitions of Gilbert Arenas and Jason Richardson. They also brought back Hedo Turkoglu who I contend they never should have let walk after their NBA Finals appearance. If Miami doesn’t make a power move soon to shore up their interior defense then they will not have a chance in May.

Well, now that at least some of the dust has settled, I figure I may as well weigh in on the LeBron James fiasco/shenanigans/debacle/whatever-the-hell-you-wanna-call-it. We all know the basics: LeBron had the opportunity to sign for more money with Cleveland, his hometown, and the only team he has ever played for, but decided to join forces with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami to form a super team henceforth know on this blog as Miami’s Dwyane Wade and Friends. As he put it, he is taking his ego.. err talents to South Beach. Here’s my take on the madness leading up to LeBron’s scurrying away from Cleveland, and the ensuing chaos.

The Decision
This was where LeBron went horribly wrong. I don’t particularly agree with the decision itself because it seems to me that it would be beneath him as one of the potentially greatest players ever to go hitch his wagon to Dwyane Wade’s.  Wade already has a ring anyway, and no matter how many they win together, Wade will always have that one more. But I can ignore all that, or at least I could if that was all there was to ignore. I get that he wanted to play with his buddies and try and win some easy rings and all that, but this was like taking your girlfriend on Jerry Springer to tell her you were sleeping with her sister, mother, and aunt and expected her to chill out and just remember the good times, even be grateful that you were with her for as long as you were. Who wants to be embarrassed and dumped in public by an attention whore? I don’t blame the people of Cleveland for hating this guy’s guts now. I won’t get into the allegations that he mailed in some playoff games over the last couple of years – at least not yet – but I find it strange that he never made it back to the NBA Finals even though his team continued to get better and better. We all knew there was no way he could leave Cleveland if they won it all, so maybe winning it all hasn’t exactly been as high a priority the last couple of seasons as getting out of Ohio and teaming up with Wade and Bosh…. or his team just choked, he had a wack coach, and his elbow was bothering him. I suppose that either is plausible.

LeBron vs. Kobe vs. Jordan
It became apparent during the NBA Finals that Kobe “6-for-24″ Bryant was nowhere near Jordan’s level. Actually, it was apparent to most of us for some time, but that pretty much sealed the deal. We always had high hopes for LeBron though. He has a tremendous skill set that has been compared to Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan. However, after his flame-out in this year’s playoffs, Bill Simmons went on to write a brilliant piece on LeBron that summed up what we all had tried to ignore for too long. LeBron is not the second coming of Jordan, he is better compared to Dr J when you really look at it. As Simmons wrote:

Doc’s Philly teams kept self-combusting at the worst possible times. The ’77 Sixers took a 2-0 lead in the Finals, then blew four straight. They lost do-or-die playoff games by two points (1978) and three points (1979). In 1980, everyone remembers Magic (only a rookie) playing five positions, notching a 42-15-7 and improbably winning Los Angeles the title; nobody ever wonders why Philly, playing at home against a team missing the 1980 MVP (Kareem), laid such an unforgivable egg. In 1981, the Sixers blew a 3-1 series lead to Boston in the Eastern Conference finals, losing the last three games by five points total. (And by the way, they led in the final minute of all three games.) By the time Philly blew the 1982 Finals, the consensus on Doc was this: phenomenal player, loved by all, an ambassador for the game, one of the best ever … doesn’t quite have it.

Then Moses showed up, Philly finally won a title, and people everywhere forgot they had felt that way.

Back to LeBron: I think we know what we have. He’s Doc 2.0 with a little Magic and a healthy dose of Bo sprinkled in.

In all honesty, this is the biggest realization we all got from this whole ordeal. LeBron is not who thought he was, what we thought he could be, or what we wanted him to be. He just isn’t. He won’t be the legend we thought he could be, the savior of Cleveland Sports that we hoped he would be, or the competitor he probably ought to be. Jordan won his first championship in his seventh season, in LeBron’s seventh season he got booted out of the playoffs even though he was on the winningest team of the past two seasons and had a better team than the one he made it to the Finals with a few years earlier. Then he said F it and bounced. When it comes to sports hate, Kobe Bryant as at the top of my list. I can’t stand the guy, but right now I like Kobe more than LeBron because at least Kobe is more of a competitor. It doesn’t matter if you want to be or not, if you are among the best in the league you are going to be in Jordan’s shadow. Kobe is trying like hell to get out from under that shadow, and I can at least respect that. LeBron seems comfortable there, as long as he is a “global icon”… whatever the #!$^ that is.

Sour Grapes
Of course, things continued to get creepier when Dan Gilbert, the owner of the Cavaliers, lashed out at LeBron in an open letter that read like a bitter ex-girlfriend trying to do voodoo on her former lover. In the letter, Gilbert called LeBron the “self-declared former King” as if he had nothing to do with pushing the whole “King James”, “We are all witnesses” crap on us for the past few years. He even went on to say that LeBron tanked a few games. This is all the very definition of the phrase “Sour Grapes”. In Aesop’s fable, the Fox couldn’t reach the grapes so he convinced himself they were no good anyway, and that’s exactly what Gilbert is doing. He couldn’t keep “King” LeBron in Cleveland and so LeBron is now a cowardly, narcissistic, quitter. Of course, then for good measure he tries to throw the hex at LeBron like some kind of jilted witchdoctor by saying that LeBron will take the “curse” with him when he leaves Cleveland. Furthermore, if he was so convinced that LeBron was quitting on the team, why fire Mike Brown? The only reason that makes sense is that he was trying to appease a player he despised in order to keep him around, but it’s not like LeBron was helping find a new coach. But look, I get it. Dan Gilbert is the owner of the team and the fans who pay to see that team are pissed off and heartbroken that their guy just left. He has a responsibility to those fans to empathize with them, and a responsibility as a business owner to try to keep their business, so he is gonna say what he needs to in order to fire them up and get them to keep coming to games. I just believe he could have done it without coming off like such an idiot.

The KG Rule
There’s one real reason I partially don’t fault LeBron for leaving Cleveland, and that reason is Kevin Garnett. KG toiled away in mediocrity for years in Minnesota, only sniffing the Finals once. He was loyal to a fault and to the point that most basketball fans wanted him to get traded to a half-way decent team. We couldn’t bare to watch him wither away without a championship, or at least playing in the Finals once. Even Ewing, Barkley and Malone got to experience the NBA Finals, and KG was at least on their level. I feel like if a potentially great player has spent more than five years on a crappy team, then we should let him walk away without judgement and without branding him a cowardly, disloyal, selfish jerk. I will call this “The KG Rule”. When he was traded to Boston and won the whole thing in his first season as a Celtic, we were all happy for him and even had to wonder how many more he could have won and how much different his legacy could have been if he had played on a legit contender his whole career, or at least a few years sooner. Who can blame LeBron for not wanting to toil away in Cleveland to the point that people are begging him to request a trade? The only snag here is that LeBron’s ceiling is higher than KG’s, and he hasn’t been on mediocre teams his whole career. So while I want to apply The KG Rule to him, I can’t really do it in good conscience… the shoe just doesn’t quite fit.

Wade’s Team
Now LeBron is in Miami, teamed up with another alpha-dog who already has a championship to speak of. Who do you think is the leader here? The guy who has already been with the team for seven seasons and won a title or the new guy who is still chasing one? This is Wade’s team by all accounts, no matter how anyone sugar-coats it, and now LeBron can play second banana to Wade and not take all the criticism when they lose. The problem here is that he won’t even get half the love when they win. Bosh will get some credit as the only one of the three who plays in the paint, and Wade is undeniably the leader here, so LeBron is gonna have to get used to being Prince James.

Cleveland Now
So where does this leave Cleveland? They still have capable players in Mo Williams and Antawn Jamison. They have a potentially solid player JJ Hickson waiting in the wings for more playing time. They recently traded for point guard Ramon Sessions and dumped the problematic Delonte West in the process. Plus they received a gang of draft picks when LeBron decided to split. They have a decent future ahead of them. They are obviously not an elite team by any means, but not all is lost. They will still have to fight for a playoff spot, but I think they could still make it to the post-season. I certainly hope so, and who wouldn’t watch a Cleveland-Miami first round series and secretly(?) root for the Cavaliers?

Balance of Power
Plenty of fans, writers, and other random observers have already given Miami the trophy for the next few years. I am not one of them. The Lakers blew it against Detroit a few years back with Kobe, Shaq, Malone, and Payton after everyone handed it to them. Injuries can strike anyone at any time – just ask Dirk, Ginobili, Garnett, and a slew of others who missed crucial playoff games in the past. But more than those things, other teams are getting better as well. The Lakers signed Matt Barnes and Steve Blake, an upgrade at point guard over Jordan Farmar, and are still the reigning champs. And don’t think that Kobe isn’t working out as you are reading this so that he can erase that 6-for-24 performance as well as Miami’s title aspirations. The Mavericks have choked in the playoffs the last few years, but have also reloaded with Tyson Chandler and Dominique Jones, and it would be sweet for them to get back at Miami. The Spurs added Spanish League MVP Tiago Splitter along with draft pick James Anderson. And that’s just the West. What about Orlando who is still a threat, and Chicago who just added Boozer? Any of these teams could beat Miami next season and after, and personally, I hope they all do.

To sum things up, I don’t think LeBron was wrong to leave Cleveland. I think he was stupid to leave. Five championships in Miami won’t mean as much for his “brand” as one in Cleveland would. And there is no guarantee he will win any at this point. He jumped ship but it was the way he did it, by basically taking a crap on his former team and city on live TV, that made it so reprehensible. The sad thing is that despite his childish, selfish, easy-way-out attitude, he is likely to win a championship or two, maybe more if he’s lucky. But I won’t be rooting for him.

Here’s an interesting article about why the Spurs are better off with RJ than their original goal of Vince Carter. From retaining the draft rights to Tiago Splitter, the salaries, and Vince’s epic choke at the free throw line this past week, it looks like the Spurs got the better deal with Jefferson. Honestly, that’s not saying a lot about RJ so much as it’s an indictment of Vince Carter’s overall uselessness.

In other news, it appears that Spurs assistant coach, Mike Budenholzer, is one of the candidates on the Cavaliers wish-list to fill their recent head coach vacancy. Mike Brown was fired earlier this week after being thoroughly out-coached by Doc Rivers. Actually, I think Brown out-coached himself more than anything with silly lineups that failed to address their matchup issues with Boston. Either way, Budenholzer is a worthy candidate, and while I don’t like to see competent people leave the Spurs, I don’t want to see them get held back either. I think it comes down to how much the Spurs want to keep him for when Popovich decides to step down.

Tonight Boston will have the chance to close out their series against the Magic in Orlando. I think the Magic threw their best punch and it was barely enough. They can’t be riding too high after that victory and the Celtics will most likely finish them off. Phoenix also won last night and evened their series with the Lakers. They’ll head back to LA for game five and hopefully be able to keep that zone defense working.

First off, here are the Spurs.com top 10 highlights of the season. Some good stuff for any NBA fan, not to mention Spurs fans.

Also, Coach Popovich’s mailbag has a few interesting bits of information in it. He chimes in a little on the Tony Parker trade rumors, DeJuan Blair’s shooting, and Tiago Splitter.

Now as for the Conference Finals, well I say it’s about time these games weren’t grossly one-sided. Orlando finally showed a pulse last night winning in OT…  in Boston no less. I wouldn’t be surprised if they can pull out one more and send this series back to Boston again. Of course, I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Celtics went to Orlando and smashed the Magic by 30 points. It’s kind of a weird place we’re in with expectations right now.

Phoenix also showed a little heart against LA. The difference here is that the Suns haven’t lost any home games and didn’t take four games to show up. I still hold out hope for Phoenix even though I know they are out-matched. Andrew Bynum’s knee issues certainly don’t hurt Phoenix’s cause right now.

In other news, LeBron is still being expected to go to pretty much any team in the NBA. It seems like everyone has a case for why he would go to one team or another. I personally think it comes down to Cleveland, New York, Chicago, and Miami – in that order. Dallas and the Clippers will try and keep hope alive but I just don’t see it.

So the NBA draft lottery was held last night before the tip-off of the Celtics-Magic game, and the Wizards won the first overall pick. So now the Wizards are faced with several different decisions: A) Draft Evan Turner instead of the projected and consensus #1 pick, John Wall, B) Draft Wall and send Arenas packing, or C) Draft Wall and keep Arenas and see how that pans out. They could even trade the pick, although I think that it’s unlikely. I find it funny since Arenas is the one who basically derailed the Wizards last season with his firearm shenanigans, yet the team chose to keep him and move damn near everyone else. Perhaps it’s because they still believe in him, but I think they just know that they won’t get near the value they want by dumping him, assuming anyone would trade for his ginormous contract and questionable judgement. At any rate, now they are faced with the prospect of having two point guards and trying to make it work, trading the pick, trading Arenas (good luck with that), or drafting Turner. It’ sounds messed up, but then again, that’s not really a very bad problem to have.

So after the draft lottery we got to watch Orlando squander home-court advantage by losing again to the Celtics. Let me just say this: I stand corrected. Boston is legit and Rondo is THE reason I am watching this series. Rondo looks like he is 12, but that’s a bad man and he should be counted among the NBA’s top point guards more often than he is. Nash, Deron, CP3, Kidd, Rose… those guys always get the love, but Rondo has the ring and is well on his way to another one. The Celtics are primed to get back to the top and duel the Lakers, showing that the only reason LA won last year was thanks to KG’s injury derailing Boston’s season. I’d buy that. Orlando meanwhile… what can I say? It’s hard to win it all when your best player shoots free throws like a drunken Shaq, Rashard Lewis is giving you like five points a game, and Vince Carter looks like he is preparing excuses like when he slipped and then laid there for ten minutes writhing as if he’d been shot.

I don’t care who wins tho, just so long as it isn’t the Lakers, and right now I think that Boston is the team to beat them.

As if the Spurs being ousted by the Suns wasn’t bad enough. My Playoff Predictions went from perfect to utterly ruined in Round Two as the Cavs choked against the Celtics in what could be LeBron’s last championship run in Cleveland.

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So the mighty Spurs have been unceremoniously swept out of the playoffs by the Suns of all teams. The Suns who San Antonio beat mercilessly for a decade. I did not expect this. No one expected this. Anyone who says they expected this is a liar or a fool, albeit an inadvertently correct fool. I can only take solace in the fact that the Spurs did not go easily, but fought hard every game. There is a world of difference between the way the Spurs were swept and the way Atlanta is getting swept by Orlando. One is disappointing, the other is just plain ugly.

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The NBA Playoffs are ready to start and the bracket is below along with my thoughts on each round and my own predictions all the way to the NBA Finals. If I am wrong then so be it, but if I get it right I need proof that I “knew it all along” so here goes…

First Round
Western Conference:
LA Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder > LA Lakers
This has the potential to be one of the funnest matchups in a long time. Durant is the youngest scoring champ in NBA history and is going against one of the best players the league has ever seen. It has all the makings of one of those classic “pass the torch” matchups. The only problem is that it isn’t. The Thunder just aren’t there yet and will be lucky to win a game against a well coached Lakers team who will make quick work of the young OKC squad. Scott Brooks is on his way as a fine coach, but this is where the real lessons are learned and the happy-to-be-in-the-playoffs-Thunder are going to get a quick, not-so-subtle lesson in humility. Still, I think that Durant and company will make this an entertaining series and Kobe has no shortage of fans or haters (me included) to keep things extra interesting. Prediction: Lakers in 5

Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz > Utah Jazz
The Nuggets are falling apart and have lost their coach and their mojo over the past month. They are 6-7 in their past 13 games and got pummeled in a blow-out loss against Phoenix in their season finale. Coach Karl is expected to miss at least the first round of the playoffs which means he is basically going to miss the playoffs. However, the Jazz don’t exactly inspire much confidence either, especially after the way they lost in their season finale, also against the Phoenix Suns. I think that neither team is a serious contender but they will battle eachother to a near standstill before one ultimately prevails  over the other only to get ousted in the next round. Prediction: Jazz in 7

Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers > Phoenix Suns
The Suns are on a mission right now after thrashing both Denver and Utah in the past week en route to a 14-2 finish. The Blazers are likely going to be without their leading scorer and best overall player, Brandon Roy. The Blazers have shown that they can meet many challenges over the course of the season, but this is the end of the line for Portland. They can only hope that next year Greg Oden doesn’t get another case of janky-knees or pose for anymore risque pictures. Prediction: Suns in 5

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs > San Antonio Spurs
Oh boy. Revenge or Repeat? I say revenge for the Spurs. The Mavs made a nice little blockbuster deal during All-Star Weekend, but Caron Butler is not having quite the impact he was expected to. He’s no slouch, and is miles better than the inconsistent, injury-plagued, blitzed out of his mind Josh Howard, but he is not taking this team to the next level – at least not yet. Haywood has probably had a bigger impact for the Mavs. Still, after the Mavericks went on their 13 game win streak shortly after the trade, they came back down to earth and started looking mortal again. Can they win it all? Certainly, but they are known more for blowing up for no apparent reason than winning championships. Enter the Spurs. San Antonio has been slowly but surely integrating several new players into the Spurs system and while the results were not so great early on, they are now showing signs of being a legit contender. They can absolutely upset the Mavericks and anyone else in their path. Last year the Spurs didn’t have Manu Ginobili for the playoffs, and this year he returned to form in a big way and got a $39 million contract extension to boot. George Hill’s defense will factor in as well. He won’t stop Kidd from getting his fair share of assists, but he can keep the point guards for the Mavs from running amok. I’ll do a more in-depth preview of this matchup, but for now let’s just say that this matchup has “upset” written all over it. Prediction: Spurs in 6

Eastern Conference:
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago Bulls > Cleveland Cavaliers
The Bulls barely managed to make the playoffs, and while their epic series against the Celtics showed a lot of promise, the only promise they have this year is a swift execution. Cleveland is the favorite in the East if not the league and will dispatch the Bulls quickly and with authority. Prediction: Cavs in 4

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat > Boston Celtics
The Celtics are nowhere near the dominant team they were a few years ago when they were NBA champs. The Big Three are older, slower, and a little bit rickety. Even Doc Rivers is hinting at bailing out before it gets worse next season. They just aren’t the same squad. Bill Simmons blames Rasheed Wallace to an extent which is probably about accurate, although I think it’s more an effect than a cause. The cause is that they simply aren’t as hungry, aren’t as desperate, and aren’t as good as they once were. Having said that, the Miami Heat have very little chance of advancing. As hopeless as I think the Celtics are when it comes to winning it all this year, the Heat are not any better. Can they upset the Celtics? Certainly. Will they? I think not. Prediction: Celtics in 7

Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks > Atlanta Hawks
I don’t really like Milwaukee, but I like Brandon Jennings. He won’t be able to win this for the Bucks though. Atlanta has a veteran point guard in Bibby who will run all over the Bucks who really don’t have anyone on the team that’s playoff tested unless you count Jerry Stackhouse or Kurt Thomas  – and I don’t. John Salmons has a little bit of experience with Chicago, but that won’t be enough to overcome the Hawks. Atlanta wants everyone to know they are for real, and they are not going to let the Bucks stand in their way. Prediction: Hawks in 6

Orlando Magic vs Charlotte Bobcats > Orlando Magic
The Charlotte Bobcats are making their first playoff appearance with Larry Brown leading the charge. They have the coaching and the personnel to flat out embarrass the Orlando Magic if they don’t come with it. I still don’t see it happening though. The Bobcats are good, but Orlando has too many weapons at every position and even an injury to one of the Magic’s key players probably wouldn’t be enough to derail them this early on. They need to focus on this opponent and this round though, or they will be taking an early vacation. Prediction: Magic in 6

Second Round
Western Conference:
LA Lakers vs Utah Jazz > LA Lakers
The Lakers will be well rested and the Jazz will be out of their element in this round. Aside from Deron Williams at point guard, the Jazz have no favorable matchups in this round and he won’t have an easy day with everyone from Fisher, to Kobe, to Artest pushing him around. Prediction: Lakers in 6

Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs > San Antonio Spurs
I don’t know why, but for some reason the Spurs always own the Suns. Maybe God hates the Suns or maybe just likes the Spurs – I don’t know. Maybe the fix is in. Either way, the Spurs almost always beat the Suns and this will be no different. Prediction: Spurs in 6

Eastern Conference:
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics > Cleveland Cavaliers
This is where the wheels fall off for Boston. This will be the last time the Big Three play in a series together, the last time Boston is considered a true contender, and hopefully the last time we are forced to look at Rasheed Wallace’s man-boobs. One can only hope. Prediction: Cavs in 6

Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic > Orlando Magic
Orlando can smell the NBA Finals by this point and will be itching to get to Cleveland without being battered too much. That’s too bad though because the Hawks will give them everything they can handle. Atlanta has a good team, but not a great team, but they can take another step in the right direction in this series. Prediction: Magic in 7

Conference Finals
Western Conference:
LA Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs > LA Lakers
I want to be wrong. I want so desperately to be wrong, but I just don’t see it happening. The Spurs can beat the Lakers, but I fear that Artest and Kobe will harass RJ and Ginobili too much. I don’t think the Spurs can really account for Gasol and Bynum. The keys to this series for the Spurs will be the play of Tony Parker and George Hill at the point guard spot, and whether or not McDyess and Blair can neutralize Bynum at the center spot. The Spurs can beat the Lakers, but probably not four games out of seven. I just hope the Spurs batter the Lakers enough to weaken them for the Finals. Prediction: Lakers in 7

Eastern Conference:
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Orlando Magic > Cleveland Cavaliers
This is where the Magic are going to miss Hedo Turkoglu’s play-making ability. The Cavs defense is going to smother the Magic and do to them what they should have last season – knock them out of the playoffs. Prediction: Cavs in 6

NBA Finals
LA Lakers vs Cleveland Cavaliers > Cleveland Cavaliers
Kobe wants to repeat, but not as much as LeBron wants to win his first title. Kobe doesn’t have the same motivation that he had in previous seasons since Shaq left town, but LeBron has all the motivation in the world. Also, Shaq will surely enjoy snatching a championship away from Kobe. This is LeBron’s year and that’s all there is to it. The Cavs all know that if they don’t win it all, LeBron could walk. If they do win it all, there is no way LeBron walks away. Everyone in Cleveland knows this. You know it. I know it. The Lakers know it… and there is nothing they can do about it. Prediction: Cavs in 7