Spurs of the Moment

CENTER: Probably the most vital position on the floor as it concerns defense. Whether a team is good defensively or horrible, the Center is always important. For good defensive teams that rotate well on the perimeter, a center is needed to clog the middle, secure rebounds and deny second shot opportunities (offensive rebounds). On a bad defensive team that either gambles for steals a lot on the perimeter or simply isn’t interested in staying in front of their man, a Center is essential for not only rebounding and taking up space in the paint, but for blocking or altering any shot attempt that comes his way, thus stopping a guaranteed basket for the opposing team.

Tim Duncan ht 6-11 | Last season 13.4 pts 8.9 rbs 1.9 blk in 28 mins a game PLAYOFFS 12.7 pts 10.5 rbs 2.5 blk in 35 mins a game

The Tim Duncan everyone tries to remember is the Duncan that had a solid back to the basket game, a face up game as well, which included some of the best footwork of that time, and when it was all said and done a jumper with range out to about 16-18 ft. Last season the Spurs went away from Duncan on offense. They also overworked him on defense by having guys who either don’t rebound or play defense next to him at the Power Forward slot. Duncan did well for most of the season, trying to use his older slower body to grab most of the rebounds and attempt to clean up all the defensive mistakes that the other Spurs made. Thats a lot to ask an aging Center in a youth-filled league. In the playoffs it took its toll. Duncan had to guard Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, and try to protect the paint all by himself. It didn’t work!!!!! Duncan has limited mobility, but his I.Q. on defense  and offense are enough to help the Spurs go far, provided he gets legit help at the Power Forward position.

Tiago Splitter ht 6-11 | Last season 4.6 pts 3.4 rbs in 12 mins a game PLAYOFFS 6.7 pts 4.7 rbs in 17 mins a game

Tiago Splitter definitely got the 08-09 George Hill treatment. Yeah sure, they raved about him before he got here and then the guy barely played. Sure he got a few injuries; but come on, seriously??? Splitter, like Hill in his rookie season, showed signs of being able to contribute on a nightly basis. In Hill’s case, Pop wouldn’t let him get past Jacque Vaughn, and for Splitter he couldn’t get past Blair, Bonner, or McDyess. In the 08-09 playoffs the Spurs were eaten alive by the smallest guy on the court (maybe the smallest guy in the building), JJ Barea, and after going down in the series Pop put in Hill who did well. Not to mention what he did to the Mavs the next year in the playoffs. Splitter was put in the same situation. Tim Duncan can’t stop two good big men(much less one) and protect the paint at the same time. Splitter came in and did a better job than all the Spurs bigs except Duncan (obviously), and maybe Dice gets a slight nod. Splitter, despite not having a jumpshot, is mobile on both ends, is an Oberto-like rebounder (thats a good thing), and has some solid post moves.

ANALYSIS: The Spurs have decent size, good rebounding, and available low-post scoring. The Spurs, as mentioned, went away from the low-post game while allowing Parker and Ginobili to run around and do the scoring and distributing. However, if you look at the last six teams to win the Championship, they all have something in common – low-post threats on offense and equally defensive minded big-men*. With Duncan being the only big guy to get consistent touches on offense and at the same time the only legitimate big to protect the paint, the Spurs would have never made it far even if they had somehow managed to beat the Grizzlies. To get back to championship level basketball, the Spurs must once again establish a post game. This does not mean they force feed Duncan, but simply get him more consistent touches on the block, mixed in with Splitter and Jefferson getting post-up opportunities a few times a game as well. You can also never have enough big men. So if the Spurs would like to add an extra guy, free agent Aaron Gray, formerly of the Hornets, may be the answer. He’s not much statistically, but he can bang with the Bynums and Howards of the league. Next week we’ll look at the Guards.

*Lowpost threats and defensive bigmen of the last six championship teams

2011 (Nowitzki/Chandler)

2009 and 2010(Gasol/Bynum)

2008(Garnett/Perkins)

1999,2003,2005,2007 (Duncan/Robinson 99′ an 03′ – Duncan/Mohammed 05′ – Duncan/Oberto 07′)

2004(Rasheed Wallace/Ben Wallace)

2000-2002 (Shaq)

As if the Spurs being ousted by the Suns wasn’t bad enough. My Playoff Predictions went from perfect to utterly ruined in Round Two as the Cavs choked against the Celtics in what could be LeBron’s last championship run in Cleveland.

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The Spurs defeated the Mavs 97-87  and won the series 4-2. The Suns finished off the Blazers last night 99-90 and will be the next team the Spurs face.

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The NBA Playoffs are ready to start and the bracket is below along with my thoughts on each round and my own predictions all the way to the NBA Finals. If I am wrong then so be it, but if I get it right I need proof that I “knew it all along” so here goes…

First Round
Western Conference:
LA Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder > LA Lakers
This has the potential to be one of the funnest matchups in a long time. Durant is the youngest scoring champ in NBA history and is going against one of the best players the league has ever seen. It has all the makings of one of those classic “pass the torch” matchups. The only problem is that it isn’t. The Thunder just aren’t there yet and will be lucky to win a game against a well coached Lakers team who will make quick work of the young OKC squad. Scott Brooks is on his way as a fine coach, but this is where the real lessons are learned and the happy-to-be-in-the-playoffs-Thunder are going to get a quick, not-so-subtle lesson in humility. Still, I think that Durant and company will make this an entertaining series and Kobe has no shortage of fans or haters (me included) to keep things extra interesting. Prediction: Lakers in 5

Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz > Utah Jazz
The Nuggets are falling apart and have lost their coach and their mojo over the past month. They are 6-7 in their past 13 games and got pummeled in a blow-out loss against Phoenix in their season finale. Coach Karl is expected to miss at least the first round of the playoffs which means he is basically going to miss the playoffs. However, the Jazz don’t exactly inspire much confidence either, especially after the way they lost in their season finale, also against the Phoenix Suns. I think that neither team is a serious contender but they will battle eachother to a near standstill before one ultimately prevails  over the other only to get ousted in the next round. Prediction: Jazz in 7

Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers > Phoenix Suns
The Suns are on a mission right now after thrashing both Denver and Utah in the past week en route to a 14-2 finish. The Blazers are likely going to be without their leading scorer and best overall player, Brandon Roy. The Blazers have shown that they can meet many challenges over the course of the season, but this is the end of the line for Portland. They can only hope that next year Greg Oden doesn’t get another case of janky-knees or pose for anymore risque pictures. Prediction: Suns in 5

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs > San Antonio Spurs
Oh boy. Revenge or Repeat? I say revenge for the Spurs. The Mavs made a nice little blockbuster deal during All-Star Weekend, but Caron Butler is not having quite the impact he was expected to. He’s no slouch, and is miles better than the inconsistent, injury-plagued, blitzed out of his mind Josh Howard, but he is not taking this team to the next level – at least not yet. Haywood has probably had a bigger impact for the Mavs. Still, after the Mavericks went on their 13 game win streak shortly after the trade, they came back down to earth and started looking mortal again. Can they win it all? Certainly, but they are known more for blowing up for no apparent reason than winning championships. Enter the Spurs. San Antonio has been slowly but surely integrating several new players into the Spurs system and while the results were not so great early on, they are now showing signs of being a legit contender. They can absolutely upset the Mavericks and anyone else in their path. Last year the Spurs didn’t have Manu Ginobili for the playoffs, and this year he returned to form in a big way and got a $39 million contract extension to boot. George Hill’s defense will factor in as well. He won’t stop Kidd from getting his fair share of assists, but he can keep the point guards for the Mavs from running amok. I’ll do a more in-depth preview of this matchup, but for now let’s just say that this matchup has “upset” written all over it. Prediction: Spurs in 6

Eastern Conference:
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago Bulls > Cleveland Cavaliers
The Bulls barely managed to make the playoffs, and while their epic series against the Celtics showed a lot of promise, the only promise they have this year is a swift execution. Cleveland is the favorite in the East if not the league and will dispatch the Bulls quickly and with authority. Prediction: Cavs in 4

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat > Boston Celtics
The Celtics are nowhere near the dominant team they were a few years ago when they were NBA champs. The Big Three are older, slower, and a little bit rickety. Even Doc Rivers is hinting at bailing out before it gets worse next season. They just aren’t the same squad. Bill Simmons blames Rasheed Wallace to an extent which is probably about accurate, although I think it’s more an effect than a cause. The cause is that they simply aren’t as hungry, aren’t as desperate, and aren’t as good as they once were. Having said that, the Miami Heat have very little chance of advancing. As hopeless as I think the Celtics are when it comes to winning it all this year, the Heat are not any better. Can they upset the Celtics? Certainly. Will they? I think not. Prediction: Celtics in 7

Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks > Atlanta Hawks
I don’t really like Milwaukee, but I like Brandon Jennings. He won’t be able to win this for the Bucks though. Atlanta has a veteran point guard in Bibby who will run all over the Bucks who really don’t have anyone on the team that’s playoff tested unless you count Jerry Stackhouse or Kurt Thomas  – and I don’t. John Salmons has a little bit of experience with Chicago, but that won’t be enough to overcome the Hawks. Atlanta wants everyone to know they are for real, and they are not going to let the Bucks stand in their way. Prediction: Hawks in 6

Orlando Magic vs Charlotte Bobcats > Orlando Magic
The Charlotte Bobcats are making their first playoff appearance with Larry Brown leading the charge. They have the coaching and the personnel to flat out embarrass the Orlando Magic if they don’t come with it. I still don’t see it happening though. The Bobcats are good, but Orlando has too many weapons at every position and even an injury to one of the Magic’s key players probably wouldn’t be enough to derail them this early on. They need to focus on this opponent and this round though, or they will be taking an early vacation. Prediction: Magic in 6

Second Round
Western Conference:
LA Lakers vs Utah Jazz > LA Lakers
The Lakers will be well rested and the Jazz will be out of their element in this round. Aside from Deron Williams at point guard, the Jazz have no favorable matchups in this round and he won’t have an easy day with everyone from Fisher, to Kobe, to Artest pushing him around. Prediction: Lakers in 6

Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs > San Antonio Spurs
I don’t know why, but for some reason the Spurs always own the Suns. Maybe God hates the Suns or maybe just likes the Spurs – I don’t know. Maybe the fix is in. Either way, the Spurs almost always beat the Suns and this will be no different. Prediction: Spurs in 6

Eastern Conference:
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics > Cleveland Cavaliers
This is where the wheels fall off for Boston. This will be the last time the Big Three play in a series together, the last time Boston is considered a true contender, and hopefully the last time we are forced to look at Rasheed Wallace’s man-boobs. One can only hope. Prediction: Cavs in 6

Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic > Orlando Magic
Orlando can smell the NBA Finals by this point and will be itching to get to Cleveland without being battered too much. That’s too bad though because the Hawks will give them everything they can handle. Atlanta has a good team, but not a great team, but they can take another step in the right direction in this series. Prediction: Magic in 7

Conference Finals
Western Conference:
LA Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs > LA Lakers
I want to be wrong. I want so desperately to be wrong, but I just don’t see it happening. The Spurs can beat the Lakers, but I fear that Artest and Kobe will harass RJ and Ginobili too much. I don’t think the Spurs can really account for Gasol and Bynum. The keys to this series for the Spurs will be the play of Tony Parker and George Hill at the point guard spot, and whether or not McDyess and Blair can neutralize Bynum at the center spot. The Spurs can beat the Lakers, but probably not four games out of seven. I just hope the Spurs batter the Lakers enough to weaken them for the Finals. Prediction: Lakers in 7

Eastern Conference:
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Orlando Magic > Cleveland Cavaliers
This is where the Magic are going to miss Hedo Turkoglu’s play-making ability. The Cavs defense is going to smother the Magic and do to them what they should have last season – knock them out of the playoffs. Prediction: Cavs in 6

NBA Finals
LA Lakers vs Cleveland Cavaliers > Cleveland Cavaliers
Kobe wants to repeat, but not as much as LeBron wants to win his first title. Kobe doesn’t have the same motivation that he had in previous seasons since Shaq left town, but LeBron has all the motivation in the world. Also, Shaq will surely enjoy snatching a championship away from Kobe. This is LeBron’s year and that’s all there is to it. The Cavs all know that if they don’t win it all, LeBron could walk. If they do win it all, there is no way LeBron walks away. Everyone in Cleveland knows this. You know it. I know it. The Lakers know it… and there is nothing they can do about it. Prediction: Cavs in 7

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We’re all busy people, and it sucks when we finally have time to sit down and watch a basketball game only to find out it’s the Clippers or Bucks tonight. Who needs that kind of aggravation? I know I don’t, so I have compiled the following list of the Top 15 Must-See Games for Spurs fans this season. So mark your calendars, get your tickets, set your Tivo, book your flights, save up your sick days, or whatever you have to do, but do not miss these match-ups.

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