Spurs of the Moment

Don’t look now but the Spurs just won four games in a row – the last three against the alleged contenders of the Western Conference. Granted the Mavs were without Dirk, it’s still satisfying to watch S.A. smash thru the early conference favorites one after the other.

After beating the Lakers 97-82 last Tuesday, the Spurs went on to beat the Mavs in Dallas on Thursday 99-93. That was an interesting game since the Mavericks were without Dirk Nowitzki but the Mavericks still gave the Spurs all they could handle behind Caron Butler’s season-high 30 points and yet another triple-double from Jason Kidd. Unfortunately for the Mavericks, Tim Duncan had a bounce back game with 17 points and 11 rebounds, and Gary Neal came off the bench to bombard Dallas with 21 points of his own. I kind of had to laugh at the Mavs starting Brian Cardinal. Did they think he could pass for Nowitzki and draw double-teams or something? Anyway, the poor Mavs – who I actually am more worried about than the Lakers right now – suffered another setback when Caron Butler hurt is knee in their next game, a loss in Milwaukee. finally, the Spurs completely dismantled the Thunder 101-74 on Saturday night. They held Kevin Durant to 16 points and the Thunder to 33% shooting from the field. Only Serge Ibaka came to play with 14 points, 13 boards, four blocks, and a steal – although he shot only 5-of-13 from the floor himself. Tim Duncan led all scorers with 21 points while Tony Parker had 14 points and 10 dimes.

So there the Spurs sit atop the West – the league in fact – with a 29-4 record. Nearly halfway thru the season I have to say that I think they’re only contending with three teams this year: The Mavericks (25-8), the Celtics (25-7), and maybe Miami’s Dwyane Wade and Friends (26-9). Orlando has an outside shot with their revamped roster, and Lakers can’t be counted out just yet, but if I had to call it now then I’d say get ready for a Spurs-Celtics finals. I just don’t see anyone in the West with the depth or the championship pedigree of the Spurs. Dallas is deep but are not proven winners. The Lakers are winners, but their depth is non-existent – and WTF happened to Ron Artest? Can someone chuck a beer at this clown and get his blood pumping again? As for the East, the Celtics are the clear front-runner so long as they can remain healthy during the playoffs. It seems that they are getting their injuries out of the way early this season (Rondo, Pierce, Garnett, Shaq) so maybe that won’t be an issue. Miami is kind of a question mark. They are figuring out how to win, but can they do it in a 7-game series against a quality team? I say no. And they have to remain healthy too. Losing Haslem hurt them a lot and their interior defense was weak to begin with. Can LeBron and Wade win them four games in a series on their own? Probably not.

Next up to bat are the New York Knicks, who are actually one of my favorite teams. Yes, I grew up loving the Knicks – partially cuz I was a kid who was happy to sport some Ewing sneakers, I hated Michael Jordan and all of his zombie-like worshippers, and gravitated to the scrappiness of players like Xavier McDaniel, Charles Oakley, and John Starks. Chris Childs punching Kobe also helped. Having said all that, the Knicks stand no chance. The Spurs are just better in every way, and the Knicks will be without Danilo Gallinari who is expected to miss the next 2-3 weeks with a sprained knee. So with that, I expect the Spurs to notch their 5th win in row tomorrow night.

Count me among the NBA fans who enjoy watching the Lakers lose. It wasn’t always this way, but that Kobe guy just irks me. Needless to say, I was very pleased with the Spurs thrashing of the Lake-No-Shows last night 97-82. The Lakers played (count em) ONE good quarter -- and that was the 2nd. I am not sure it was even them playing a good quarter as much as it was the Spurs having a bad one. At any rate, the Lakers have now lost three straight and Kobe is starting to (maybe) realize that his 30-ish% shooting is as much to blame as anyone else on the team. He was 8-for-27 from the field. It doesn’t help that Pau Gasol, Ron Artest, and Lamar Odom barely made a dent in the game, Shannon Brown was 1-for-11 and their point guards suck. All in all, the Lakers shot 35% from the field and committed 16 turnovers -- and five were courtesy of Kobe Bryant. At least Andrew Bynum is coming along (10 points and 7 boards in 22 minuntes). If he’s available in your fantasy league then now is a good time to snatch him up.

On the flip side, San Antone handled their biz as usual. Aside from Duncan having a horrible game (1-of-7 from the filed for 2 points, 4 boards and 2 assists in 30 minutes), everyone else was decent or better. Tony Parker had another great game going off for 23 points, two boards, two steals, and three assists without a single turnover. It’s so nice to see him not turning the ball over five times a game like last year. Also -- DeJuan-Frikkin-Blair was awesome with 17 points, 15 rebounds, two steals and a block. Now that’s what I’m talking about. I can’t see why he doesn’t approach those numbers more often. It’s not like the Lakers lack size or anything.

George Hill played 27 minutes and had 10 points, nine rebounds, four blocks, three assists, and two steals -- no turnovers. Meanwhile, Gary Neal only played about 18 minutes. Like I said, it’s time to move on if you picked him up in your fantasy league.

Speaking of George Hill, Kobe almost provoked him in to going Chris Childs on him at one point. Peep the video below:

With the NBA season less than two weeks away, it’s time to unveil my Top 10 Spurs Fantasy Players. I am going to examine their value from a seasonal league and a keeper league perspective, and I will also name a few players who will be in similar draft positions so that you will get an idea of where to value them. Hopefully this information can help you all draft better teams than you would have otherwise… unless you’re in a league with me.

1. Tim Duncan (PF)
Duncan is the obvious choice here. Well, almost obvious. The concerns with Duncan – mainly injury history and age – are the same for the Spurs’ other two top dogs – Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. That’s why I can’t lower him for anyone else on the team, but it is worth mentioning that last year Duncan averaged his lowest rebounds (10.1 per game), points (17.9 per game), and blocks (1.5 per game) ever. His minutes went down to 31:18 per game, and the plan is to lower his minutes more this season as well as rest him in the second of back-to-back games. When he plays he will be the same double-double machine on most nights, but I wouldn’t recommend drafting him any higher than a 3rd round pick. For Power Forwards, I’d pick Amare, Dirk, Bosh, Pau Gasol, or David Lee before Duncan. However, I would pick Duncan before Zach Randolph, Odom, Millsap, or Jeff Green. In a Keeper League, this might be the last year you can get something for him in a trade, and I would avoid him in Keeper drafts unless he’s lingering there in the 6th or 7th round.

2. Manu Ginobili (SG)
Gino moves ahead of Parker for a couple of reasons. First off, he has seemingly shaken off the injury label – the same one that Parker picked up last season. Also, he had a great season last year and seemed rejuvenated on his way to tying his second-highest scoring average at 16.5 per game. He also averaged 3.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and a his most ever assists at 4.9 per game. He shoots well enough at 44% from the field and 87% from the charity stripe, plus he knocked down 132 threes last season. In fact, you could make a strong case for drafting him ahead of Duncan. There is one snag though, and that’s that Popovich likes to bring Manu off the bench a lot, so his minutes are usually in the 25-30 per game range. He’s probably about a 5th or 6th round pick, but I wouldn’t laugh at someone for reaching for him late in the 4th round. I wouldn’t pick him before OJ Mayo, Brandon Roy, or Monta Ellis, but I would pick him over Vince Carter, Kevin Martin, or Jason Terry. In a keeper league I would not pick him up earlier than the 6th round.

3. Tony Parker (PG)
Parker’s stats took a nosedive last season as his scoring dropped from 22 points per game to 16 and his assists went from 6.9 to 5.7 per game. For a point guard who is supposed to score and rack up assists, that just won’t do. It’s bad enough that he doesn’t give you much in rebounding or three-pointers, but then there’s the fact that the only stat he went up in was turnovers. I feel like he will bounce back from a rough year that saw him play in only 56 games. Still, I’m cautious when it comes to drafting fantasy teams, so I would not pick him earlier than the 6th round. I’d pick him before Johnny Flynn or Rodney Stuckey, but not before Chauncey Billups or Devin Harris. In keeper leagues, I’d probably leave him alone until the 7th round at the earliest unless all the good point guards are drying up fast.

4. George Hill (G)
Hill started 43 games last year, mostly in place of Tony Parker. However, he also switched to Shooting Guard for several games and even started alongside Parker sometimes. What does that mean? It means that he will get minutes and it means that he showed us that he is capable of putting up at least 12.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game. He plays a major role on the Spurs not only because of his ability to fill in at both guard spots in the case of injuries, but also for his defense. This is one the up-and-comers to look for with the Spurs, especially if the Spurs do mess around and trade Tony Parker. In a seasonal league, I’d pick him up no earlier than the 8th round. I’d take him before Richard Hamilton, Jrue Holiday, or Jose Calderon, but I wouldn’t take him before Jameer Nelson, Jason Richardson, or Eric Gordon. In a keeper league, I’d probably reach earlier for him, say in the 7th round.

5. DeJuan Blair (F/C)
Blair averaged 7.8 points and 6.4 boards in his rookie campaign while only playing about 18 minutes per game. This year he could start even more than last year’s 23 games. He has reportedly been working on his shooting all summer and has averaged 13.8 points in the first four games of this pre-season. He’s a double-double waiting to happen. I’d pick him up as early as the 8th round in seasonal leagues, but you may be able to catch people sleeping and grab him later in the maybe the 10th round. I’d pick him before Villanueva, Haslem, or even Elton Brand. I wouldn’t pick him before Scola, Rashard Lewis, or Carl Landry. In Keeper leagues, pick him up earlier, maybe as early as the 7th, just like George Hill.

6. Tiago Splitter (F/C)
Possibly the biggest sleeper this year, I would wager that you can get him in the last round of any draft. There are question marks everywhere with Splitter, especially now that he has some foot problems. Still, I think he will be solid and is worth a late round pick in all leagues. He was the MVP of the Spanish league and should be able to help on the boards immediately. I suspect his scoring will pick up mid-season and he will finish the year strong. In Keeper leagues, you may want to reach for him as early as the 10th round. I’d pick him before Jason Maxiell, Matt Barnes, or Drew Gooden. I wouldn’t pick him before Al Thornton, Blake Griffin, or even the injured Carlos Boozer.

7. Richard Jefferson (SF)
I’m not high on Jefferson these days for fantasy purposes. If he isn’t scoring then he isn’t doing much else for you. I’ll give him some credit for stepping up his efforts on the glass last season, but it’s not enough for me to pick him very high. I’d pick him with a late round pick, maybe as early as the 8th or 9th round if I was in a deep league with people who all knew what they were doing, but most likely I’d pick him up in a late round just because no one else wanted him and he was still there in the 10th or something. I’d pick him before Kelenna Azubuike, Omri Casspi, or Brandon Rush, but not before Josh Howard, Ron Artest, or Corey Maggette. I’d pick him way late in a keeper draft.

8. James Anderson (SG/SF)
Anderson won’t be a significant fantasy contributor this season, but I’d take him with a late round pick in a keeper draft, which is the only reason he ranks above the next two players.

9. Antonio McDyess (PF)
Worth a late round flier, but I wouldn’t pick him up in a keeper league unless I needed another Power Forward really bad.

10. Matt Bonner (PF/C)
I wouldn’t even pick him in a Keeper league except as a late rounder to boost three pointers or have an extra player with center eligibility.

Well today is the day. LA Lakers vs Boston Celtics.. again. Call me crazy, but I am going to go out on a limb and make predictions one more time this season. I nailed the first round, and most of the Western Conference. However, my underestimation of the Boston Celtics pretty much ruined my bracket. I say no more! This time I am going to call it and get it right, so here goes.

Backcourt:
Kobe Bryant is among the best players in the NBA ever, and Ray Allen is among the best shooters in the NBA ever. They seem to share a mutual dislike for eachother dating back to Ray Allen’s days in Seattle, if not further. Kobe will be forced to run around and defend him all series or try to shut down Rajon Rondo instead. Rondo is making a case for himself being considered the best point guard in the league. The only problem is that he is banged up and the Celtics need him to run the show or they will be in trouble. They got a lift from Nate Robinson in Game 6 against Orlando, but that can’t be expected to work all series against LA. Derek Fisher is the weakest link here for either team, but that isn’t saying much as he is not a very mistake prone player and has a knack for hitting a timely shot or two in crunch time.

Frontcourt:
Lamar Odom and Ron Artest will be bothersome to say the least. Paul Pierce had his way with the Lakers pre-Ariza/Artest era, but it’s a different situation now. If Pierce can get going at all in this series it will help to keep Artest less active on offense, but the jury is out on how effective either can be against each other. KG has obviously lost a step since the Celtics won in 2008, but he has learned to adjust quite well. I’m sure it helps when you have a decent supporting cast around you. The question is how they will contain Pau Gasol. Presumably, Kendrick Perkins will do the honors of guarding Gasol most of the time, and that would be fine but there is one worrisome factor here. Perkins is one tech short of a one game suspension. Can he keep under control enough to not get T’d up or ejected? Then there’s Bynum who is still having problems with his knee. How effective can he be? I’m guessing not as effective as Rasheed Wallace - and that’s not saying much.

Bench:
Both teams have decent benches that can give them a boost when needed. Odom may start with Bynum having issues with the knee, but the Lakers also have Farmar, Shannon Brown, and Adam Morrison (just kidding). The Celtics can lean on Tony Allen sometimes (of course that could mean a timely five points or untimely five turnovers), and Nate Robinson in the backcourt, with Rasheed and Glen Davis in the frontcourt.

Coach:
Then there’s the Phil Jackson factor. Phil is a far better coach than Rivers, but Doc has surprised me lately. He is doing all the right things and navigated the Eastern Conference with relative ease.

In the end, I think the Celtics have the edge. They beat Orlando and Cleveland without home court so I don’t see why they couldn’t beat LA in a series format that arguably favors the road team. My prediction: Celtics in 6

As if the Spurs being ousted by the Suns wasn’t bad enough. My Playoff Predictions went from perfect to utterly ruined in Round Two as the Cavs choked against the Celtics in what could be LeBron’s last championship run in Cleveland.

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The NBA Playoffs are ready to start and the bracket is below along with my thoughts on each round and my own predictions all the way to the NBA Finals. If I am wrong then so be it, but if I get it right I need proof that I “knew it all along” so here goes…

First Round
Western Conference:
LA Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder > LA Lakers
This has the potential to be one of the funnest matchups in a long time. Durant is the youngest scoring champ in NBA history and is going against one of the best players the league has ever seen. It has all the makings of one of those classic “pass the torch” matchups. The only problem is that it isn’t. The Thunder just aren’t there yet and will be lucky to win a game against a well coached Lakers team who will make quick work of the young OKC squad. Scott Brooks is on his way as a fine coach, but this is where the real lessons are learned and the happy-to-be-in-the-playoffs-Thunder are going to get a quick, not-so-subtle lesson in humility. Still, I think that Durant and company will make this an entertaining series and Kobe has no shortage of fans or haters (me included) to keep things extra interesting. Prediction: Lakers in 5

Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz > Utah Jazz
The Nuggets are falling apart and have lost their coach and their mojo over the past month. They are 6-7 in their past 13 games and got pummeled in a blow-out loss against Phoenix in their season finale. Coach Karl is expected to miss at least the first round of the playoffs which means he is basically going to miss the playoffs. However, the Jazz don’t exactly inspire much confidence either, especially after the way they lost in their season finale, also against the Phoenix Suns. I think that neither team is a serious contender but they will battle eachother to a near standstill before one ultimately prevails  over the other only to get ousted in the next round. Prediction: Jazz in 7

Phoenix Suns vs Portland Trail Blazers > Phoenix Suns
The Suns are on a mission right now after thrashing both Denver and Utah in the past week en route to a 14-2 finish. The Blazers are likely going to be without their leading scorer and best overall player, Brandon Roy. The Blazers have shown that they can meet many challenges over the course of the season, but this is the end of the line for Portland. They can only hope that next year Greg Oden doesn’t get another case of janky-knees or pose for anymore risque pictures. Prediction: Suns in 5

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs > San Antonio Spurs
Oh boy. Revenge or Repeat? I say revenge for the Spurs. The Mavs made a nice little blockbuster deal during All-Star Weekend, but Caron Butler is not having quite the impact he was expected to. He’s no slouch, and is miles better than the inconsistent, injury-plagued, blitzed out of his mind Josh Howard, but he is not taking this team to the next level – at least not yet. Haywood has probably had a bigger impact for the Mavs. Still, after the Mavericks went on their 13 game win streak shortly after the trade, they came back down to earth and started looking mortal again. Can they win it all? Certainly, but they are known more for blowing up for no apparent reason than winning championships. Enter the Spurs. San Antonio has been slowly but surely integrating several new players into the Spurs system and while the results were not so great early on, they are now showing signs of being a legit contender. They can absolutely upset the Mavericks and anyone else in their path. Last year the Spurs didn’t have Manu Ginobili for the playoffs, and this year he returned to form in a big way and got a $39 million contract extension to boot. George Hill’s defense will factor in as well. He won’t stop Kidd from getting his fair share of assists, but he can keep the point guards for the Mavs from running amok. I’ll do a more in-depth preview of this matchup, but for now let’s just say that this matchup has “upset” written all over it. Prediction: Spurs in 6

Eastern Conference:
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Chicago Bulls > Cleveland Cavaliers
The Bulls barely managed to make the playoffs, and while their epic series against the Celtics showed a lot of promise, the only promise they have this year is a swift execution. Cleveland is the favorite in the East if not the league and will dispatch the Bulls quickly and with authority. Prediction: Cavs in 4

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat > Boston Celtics
The Celtics are nowhere near the dominant team they were a few years ago when they were NBA champs. The Big Three are older, slower, and a little bit rickety. Even Doc Rivers is hinting at bailing out before it gets worse next season. They just aren’t the same squad. Bill Simmons blames Rasheed Wallace to an extent which is probably about accurate, although I think it’s more an effect than a cause. The cause is that they simply aren’t as hungry, aren’t as desperate, and aren’t as good as they once were. Having said that, the Miami Heat have very little chance of advancing. As hopeless as I think the Celtics are when it comes to winning it all this year, the Heat are not any better. Can they upset the Celtics? Certainly. Will they? I think not. Prediction: Celtics in 7

Atlanta Hawks vs Milwaukee Bucks > Atlanta Hawks
I don’t really like Milwaukee, but I like Brandon Jennings. He won’t be able to win this for the Bucks though. Atlanta has a veteran point guard in Bibby who will run all over the Bucks who really don’t have anyone on the team that’s playoff tested unless you count Jerry Stackhouse or Kurt Thomas  – and I don’t. John Salmons has a little bit of experience with Chicago, but that won’t be enough to overcome the Hawks. Atlanta wants everyone to know they are for real, and they are not going to let the Bucks stand in their way. Prediction: Hawks in 6

Orlando Magic vs Charlotte Bobcats > Orlando Magic
The Charlotte Bobcats are making their first playoff appearance with Larry Brown leading the charge. They have the coaching and the personnel to flat out embarrass the Orlando Magic if they don’t come with it. I still don’t see it happening though. The Bobcats are good, but Orlando has too many weapons at every position and even an injury to one of the Magic’s key players probably wouldn’t be enough to derail them this early on. They need to focus on this opponent and this round though, or they will be taking an early vacation. Prediction: Magic in 6

Second Round
Western Conference:
LA Lakers vs Utah Jazz > LA Lakers
The Lakers will be well rested and the Jazz will be out of their element in this round. Aside from Deron Williams at point guard, the Jazz have no favorable matchups in this round and he won’t have an easy day with everyone from Fisher, to Kobe, to Artest pushing him around. Prediction: Lakers in 6

Phoenix Suns vs San Antonio Spurs > San Antonio Spurs
I don’t know why, but for some reason the Spurs always own the Suns. Maybe God hates the Suns or maybe just likes the Spurs – I don’t know. Maybe the fix is in. Either way, the Spurs almost always beat the Suns and this will be no different. Prediction: Spurs in 6

Eastern Conference:
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics > Cleveland Cavaliers
This is where the wheels fall off for Boston. This will be the last time the Big Three play in a series together, the last time Boston is considered a true contender, and hopefully the last time we are forced to look at Rasheed Wallace’s man-boobs. One can only hope. Prediction: Cavs in 6

Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic > Orlando Magic
Orlando can smell the NBA Finals by this point and will be itching to get to Cleveland without being battered too much. That’s too bad though because the Hawks will give them everything they can handle. Atlanta has a good team, but not a great team, but they can take another step in the right direction in this series. Prediction: Magic in 7

Conference Finals
Western Conference:
LA Lakers vs San Antonio Spurs > LA Lakers
I want to be wrong. I want so desperately to be wrong, but I just don’t see it happening. The Spurs can beat the Lakers, but I fear that Artest and Kobe will harass RJ and Ginobili too much. I don’t think the Spurs can really account for Gasol and Bynum. The keys to this series for the Spurs will be the play of Tony Parker and George Hill at the point guard spot, and whether or not McDyess and Blair can neutralize Bynum at the center spot. The Spurs can beat the Lakers, but probably not four games out of seven. I just hope the Spurs batter the Lakers enough to weaken them for the Finals. Prediction: Lakers in 7

Eastern Conference:
Cleveland Cavaliers vs Orlando Magic > Cleveland Cavaliers
This is where the Magic are going to miss Hedo Turkoglu’s play-making ability. The Cavs defense is going to smother the Magic and do to them what they should have last season – knock them out of the playoffs. Prediction: Cavs in 6

NBA Finals
LA Lakers vs Cleveland Cavaliers > Cleveland Cavaliers
Kobe wants to repeat, but not as much as LeBron wants to win his first title. Kobe doesn’t have the same motivation that he had in previous seasons since Shaq left town, but LeBron has all the motivation in the world. Also, Shaq will surely enjoy snatching a championship away from Kobe. This is LeBron’s year and that’s all there is to it. The Cavs all know that if they don’t win it all, LeBron could walk. If they do win it all, there is no way LeBron walks away. Everyone in Cleveland knows this. You know it. I know it. The Lakers know it… and there is nothing they can do about it. Prediction: Cavs in 7

I’m not going to bother with an elaborate recap today. If you have ESPN or live in LA or San Antonio then you probably saw the game. It went something like this:

Tim Duncan shooting like Roger Mason on a bad day- check.
Kobe Bryant playing like Kobe Bryant – check.
Ron Artest stealing the ball at will – check.
Spurs falling apart in the second half – check.

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The Spurs lost to a Lakers team that was missing arguably the best player in the game right now and their starting center. They may as well have lost to Pau Gasol and four lucky fans last night. Gasol had some ridiculous numbers with 21 points, 19 rebounds, eight assists, five blocks, and a steal. Ron Artest had 18 points, and Lamar Odom had a double-double with 16 and 10. For the Spurs, the usual players showed up – Duncan (16 points, 15 boards), Parker (20 points, 8 assists), and Ginobili (21 points). The tandem of Antonio McDyess and DeJuan Blair had 15 points and 14 rebounds… not too bad. George Hill was a non-factor, and Richard Jefferson…. oh boy.

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On the one hand, it’s hard to get too excited about beating a Lakers team playing without Pau Gasol and only 3/4 of Kobe. On the other hand, it’s always nice to pummel the Lakers, even if it means kicking them while they’re down. The Spurs dismantled the remnants of the reigning champs 105-85 in San Antonio making them 11-10 against Western Conference foes. It was also nice to beat a team that is above .500 for a change. That makes the Spurs 5-11 in that category. For once, the Spurs committed fewer turnovers than their opponents – only 10 to LA’s 14. The Spurs shot 57.3% from the field, but were a horrific 4-of-11 from the free throw line. Good thing this game wasn’t closer. The Spurs are now 1.5 games behind Dallas in the Southwest Division and five games behind the Lakers.

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During the pre-season, I did a short interview for Brian Cashiola from RocketDunks.com as part of his Division Previews. Well, naturally I got to thinking that I may have a few questions for him about the Rockets and Spurs. Check it out:

SpursoftheMoment: With Yao’s latest injury, and the reports that he could miss the whole season, how optimistic are Rockets fans about Yao playing at all this year?
Brian Cashiola: I would say we are hopeful but not optimistic if that makes sense. Most projections have him being out until around playoff time. And if the Rockets are fortunate enough to make the playoffs with this roster it will be with a very different style of basketball than what Yao is used to so I can’t see us throwing him out there in that situation and risk further injury as well as throwing off what got us there. Read more »